I took my mono-red list into the Tournament Practice Room on MtG:O, and I would have to say I am pleasantly surprised with the results. I played two notebook pages worth of games, mostly to see how many mistakes I could make (in retrospect), and to get an idea of how the deck played "for real".
First, some caveats:
The tournament practice room is not a tournament. There are no prizes on the line, and often people who are frustrated leave the game. You also see a higher quantity of non-real decks, and bad players, compared to a tournament setting, because people with good decks who play well aren't practicing, they are beating people up for their packs. All of these things need to be considered when looking at the results here, and success at this level is near-mandatory in order for any deck to be even moderately successful at the higher levels.
Second, some results:
Overall, I went 23-3 with the deck, which is pretty amazing even with the caveats. I only lost 12 games across those 26 matches... However, lets drill down a bit and see if we can learn more than "we win 90% of TPR matches"
Aggro: 15-3, 8-1
Mono-Black Infect: 2-0
This is a real deck, with a fairly nightmare card for my deck in Phyrexian Crusader. I ran into a scenario in the second game where I attacked with two bloodthirsted Stormblood Berserkers into a Phyrexian Crusader, and threw in a transformed Reckless Waif, without thinking about it too much. Turns out, he couldn't block the Berserkers anyway, so the RW was a chump attacker, that would have come in handy attacking the next turn, after he summoned another Crusader... In any event, Shrines and burn to the face were quite effective in this match. Manic Vandal was very effective vs Lash.
Terrible WW: 2-0
O ring + pump + terrible white creatures. I'd be surprised to see this in any match for packs.
Terrible G+Equip: 1-0
Conceded the match. Not a real match.
W Artifact/Token Aggro: 2-0
Mull to 6, and a Mull to 5 with 2 Waifs were both easy wins. This game taught me how important mulligans are with this deck. Because of the sheer insane power of your 1-drops, and the insanity of a T5 ultimated Koth, you can mulligan a bad hand into an easy win at 6.
UG Infect: 2-1
Super-combo-damage-kill between pump spells and Ranger's Guile and infecters. Lost the first game on a mull to 6, that I should have mulled to 5, since it didn't have any action. (No 1-drop, Berserker, Koth is not really a keeper)
He brought in Mistep and Negate, but I brought in Arc Trail, and that was that.
Why aren't I maining some of these?
RB aggro: 2-0
Had some pretty loose creatures, so a higher-tier version of this might have went better(for him). Shrine isn't at it's best with half black spells in your deck.
GW Humans: 2-0
Obviously a beginner player. I had double-noble game one, and noble-zerker game two. Did you know Noble can't be blocked by humans? That's pretty useful. I did make a mistake here, against a Serra Angel (!). I held back my 4/4 Noble, thinking "I'll either hold her back from attacking, or attack once she does." That line of thinking doesn't work that well against a evasive vigilance creature.
WW Equip: 2-0
He got mana screwed G1, and I played cautiously to ultimate Koth and win G2 vs his O-Rings.
Mono Red: 0-2
Game 1 I mulled 6 land into 1 land into 0 land all the way down to 2 (also no land). I kept at 2, and if he had not had Koth on T4, I might have made a game of that one. It is possible that I should have kept at 4 or 5 with no land on the play, but I did not.
Game 2, I never drew a third land, should have mulliganed? I should have Arc Trailed T2 of this game, to shut of his Berserker, which dealt something like 12 damage to me, but I waited, "for value". I should know that some other people are playing good cards like me too...
Aggro-Control: 8-1, 4-0
UW Humans: 2-0
Conceded early both games. Heavy counterspell suite in both games. Made an interesting mistake where I burned a 3/3 Champion of the Parish for 3, and he cast a Snapcaster Mage in response. Need to consider that in real games...
UW good-stuff: 2-0
nth in a long line of players to cast Sun Titan (returning nothing), Batterskull, or Wurmcoil, and lose(!) 4-5 turns later, to a ultimated Koth. Having a unkicked Berserker around for a turn to chump-block to protect Koth loyalty, or your own life total, so you can tap 6 mountains and kill a Titan/Wurmcoil was clutch in these games. Had plenty of action + O-Rings against me, but I had reasonable draws, and early must-answers like Shrine cleared the way for late not-answers like Koth.
Wraths in this matchup were 1:1's or 2:2's when they were cast. A single Noble or kicked Berserker is a lethal threat.
UW Illusions: 2-0
In this game, I made the cunning move of casting a Volt Charge on one of his dorks when he was at 2 life. (Not used to playing against mono-Dismember + Probe I suppose...) Gut shot and Geistflame were good.
UW Tokens: 2-1
I made a few mental mistakes this game. I forgot to proliferate (hard when they F6, or when they take forever). I mulled a 5 land 2 spell hand into a hand that won me the game, so that's another point towards mulliganing. The game he won was game one, and his multiple Blade Splicers laughed at my Geistflames.
Control: 17-4, 9-1
UW: 2-0, 1-2
Two matches vs. the same guy, who was playing what was clearly the most controlling deck I faced. He was packing a load of counters, Blue Sun's Zenith, and the artifact to reshuffle your graveyard. He kept in all the counters after being killed super-early 3x, and choosing to draw G2. I probably sided out my 1-drops, which was stupid in retrospect. I did realize in this gam set some mistakes I was making in sideboarding, even though Waif is very bad against Timely. (Noble and Zerker can get through with a Geistflame, Waif can't)
I made some pretty bad plays, mostly against Gideon. Unkickered Zerker is just so bad against everything, including Planeswalkers. I made quite a few mistakes, but I learned alot about what is important against super-control. (Low drops to make them tap out, so I can land Planeswalkers and kill them - You can't take out all the low drops!)
URBg Burning Vengance: 2-0
Rolling Tremblor can be quite good on the play for him. This was my first opponent to Ghost Quarter one of my Mountains (a 4/4 attacking Mountain), but not the last. I lost quite a few of these guys to Doom Blade, which does take some of the bite out of T5 Koth + Ultimate.
BU: 2-0
Had Wurmcoil in these games, but didn't play the best, and Koth took him to town with a blocker to save me/him for a crucial turn. This deck does not scoop to Wurmcoil at all...
UR Counterburn: 1-0
Had to leave for dinner, but this matchup seemed pretty good for me. My burn (Shrine) seemed better than anything he had, and his counters seemed to slow him down as much as me.
One interesting scenario I was in was in the later turns, and I had a unkicked Berserker (why I cast these, I have no idea now), and a fresh Chandra, facing down a Spikeshot Elder, and an opponent on 8 or so life. I thought to myself "if I shoot his Elder, he'll shoot my Berserker", which is likely true. However, my situation doesn't get any better if I took my horrific line, of shooting him (all of this pre-combat). What I should have done is attack first. He can't block (Zerker = awesome...), so he either has to use 3 mana then, or take a point (threatening kicked Zerkers his life total, etc), THEN cast Chandra, then kill the Spikeshot Elder. My line virtually guaranteed 0 damage from the Berserker, and also let the elder live another turn, when it could do who knows what to Chandra (like attack her, for example, which he did). This was an example of me thinking through one line, not liking it, and discarding all others as equally bad. Not great, to be sure.
UWB Solar Flare: 2-1
I won game one despite using Koth on a summoning sick Mountain, something that I did more than once in this testing. In the second game, my opponent continued to show me why Waif is bad vs Timely. And Snapcaster. And.... I also didn't keep a very good hand. Why do I think that against control decks, I have to keep any 7 with lands and spells? I could win the game with any Koth Ultimate, mulligan for goodness sake! Game 3, I went Noble, into Chandra (O-Ring) into Koth into Ultimate, which is how I drew it up. As long as I keep drawing lands up to 6 or so, (yay Gambit! Often better than VC T5 after Koth...) UBx can't beat the Koth Ultimate.
RGB Snapcaster/Flashback: 2-0
Noble into double Waif is pretty good. There are alot of scenarios where Snapcaster can't block vs this deck.
U? 1-0
Conceded the match after Noble -> Berserker on the play.
UBr Tezzeret: 2-0
T4 Koth wins. Had no idea what his deck was from his cards, Vault Skirge + Liquimetal Coating + Flashback?
Turns out he was Tezzeret, but he kept in only something like 8 artifacts, and boarded up to 30 removal + draw spells. He finally lost with 10 cards left in his library. Perhaps not the best player. Got 3:1'ed in G2 by Whipflare, and he was at something like 65 life, but Koth put him away. He played quite badly, and brought me down to his level. I untapped the wrong Mountain, forgot to attack with mountains, etc, etc, as the game dragged on. Not my finest hour.
WUB Solar Flare: 2-1
Game one I was stuck at 2 land for the majority of the game, if I could draw a land or two before turn 8, I'd have taken this one home. Game two, I mulled to 5, and won. Game three, I mulled to 6 and won, so this should be a lesson to me in future games, that the deck is clearly good enough to win sub-7, so don't be afraid to go there.
Ramp: 5-3, 2-1
GW: 2-0
Not the best deck. Was playing lots of mana creatures, Wurmcoil, and Mentor of the Meek. Mentor was the easy part. Wonder if I should main Arc Trail...
BUG Snapcaster: 2-1
Game one, I drew two Nobles and burned his ramp (even Emmisaries), to win.
Game two, I kept a questionable hand, and was stuck at 2 land for 8 turns. He ramped up, and Frost Titan, Acidic Slime, etc, punish such positions.
Game three I kept a better one, and saw Frosty, and Tree of Redemption. I misplayed vs the Tree, but won with burn to the face/unblockable guys anyway.
UG: 1-2
He played Birds, I didn't kill them, he played several titans, they killed me.
Wait to cast Koth? I didn't this game, and that was the game.
He kept a hand of 2x Negate vs my start, and happened to get there against my Shrine into Planeswalker draw. Anything early and he is probably dead, that should tell me something... People kept keeping (or bringing in) countermagic against me, which was coincidentally good against what I did to them, so perhaps I need to (counterintuitively to me) bring in more fast stuff in these blue ramp matchups, and run them over.
Overall Notes, Maindeck:
I think I can afford to -1 Geistflame, +1 Arc Trail. Geistflame is very good, often cast on T1 as a removal spell, or as a "blowout" after timely. I cast it several times for +1 counter on multiple shrines, to push me into lethal a turn or two earlier. I did flash it back occasionally, but only in the "end of turn, to your head, to charge up Shrines" way.
I liked the 1x Gut Shot. It "saved" a (4-counter) Koth from a Snapcaster attack several times. It charged up a Shrine for zero mana in one lethal situation, and occasionally allowed me to do removal spell + threat turn 1 against mana creatures or the like.
I cast Chandra several times, and she ate O-Rings, Negates, Mana Leaks, and the like, to clear the way for my Koth. Occasionally I did Koth into Chandra T4, but those tended to not be winning situations. I am not sure I ever got to cast a doubled proliferate spell, while keeping her alive, across all the games. It's one of the ways to kill Titans or Sphynxes without a Koth Ultimate, but in the main, she served mostly as distraction. Having a + ability that killed creatures against aggro decks was good, but I was often siding her out for Arc Trail, etc. I'd really like another solid 3-5 mana counter-enabling threat in this slot, but I don't know what to do with it other than her. Perhaps a Metamorph, or...
Noble is the MVP of the early game for sure. By himself, he forces Wraths, and outraces most any damage based wrath effect. He also is unblockable against perhaps 20% of creatures, and powers up Berserker like nothing else.
Berserker is very solid. Better with Geistflame than Arc Trail, to be sure. Best with Gut Shot, but I wouldn't ever play more than a couple of those. I did side one out, whenever I took out the Waifs, because a naked Berserker is a sad thing to look at. He is nigh-unblockable in this format, and was attacking through Titans, Wurmcoils, Crusaders, and the like. He often makes Timely look rather bad, and chump blocks like a champ to protect Koth.
All the proliferate effects were super solid. Often, there was no better spell for me to draw than either a Volt Charge, or a Gambit. T5 Koth Ultimate happened quite often, and things went very well after that.
Koth was the overall MVP. He ultimated many a time, locked people out of games, took down Wurmcoils, Titans and Batterskulls like they were nothing. One opponent conceded to me, ahead 65 life to 1, with a Batterskull in play. (The turns went T5 Batterskull, T6 Sun Titan returning Abolisher, T7 Wurmcoil, and Mono Red took that game home...) That was a very fun game to win.
Devil's Play did some great work, as a 2-mana 1-damage spell, or as a 7-mana, game-ender. I never lived the dream of Kothing or Chandraing a Devil's Play (or even Koth + Chandraing), but this guy did some serious work from the hand, and the graveyard. I did Devil's Play for 0 one game, on 7 mana, to charge two shrines to lethal.
Notes on the Sideboard:
I couldn't sideboard in 1x Geistflame and 4x Arc Trail against aggro. This means I should keep 1x Geistflame out of the sideboard for sure, and probably squeeze in an Arc Trail main (probably over another Geistflame)
I did sideboard in the mountains (and RSZ) against slower matchups. The Geistflames were pretty miserable there, and all that mattered was T5 Koth Ultimate.
I sided in the Refugee against Red, and it was a beating. I sided in Manic Vandal against artifacts, and it was my only out a couple times.
I sided in Ratchet Bomb against O-Ring, and Tokens strategies, and it was great against both. I even proliferated the Ratchet Bomb to 3 to kill off a O-Ring one turn early, which was pretty sweet. It was a card that worked for me on O and D, killing off blocking Timely Reinforcement tokens, and potential Koth-Killing Blade Splicer tokens, as well as giving me my wincons back via blowing up troublesome enchantments.
I'm pretty sure I could free up two slots against aggro, for something useful against control/ramp. Maining an Arc Trail (and cutting a Geistflame from the SB) would free up alot of space. I'm not sure what I'd bring in though. Curse of the Pierced Heart? Mana Barbs? Not exactly a combo with Koth, but hey...
