Saturday, June 25, 2011

Friday Night Magc - 6/25/2011

A friend of mine gave me a push this week to go to a live magic event (Thanks Joe!) and I finally pulled the trigger today, with the help of a Microsoft site that pointed me towards the various Magic events occuring in the area.  There were a few options, and I ended up going with Uncle's Games in Crossroads.

This was my first Friday Night Magic, since I was playing Contested Cliffs, Molder Slugs, Ravenous Baloths, Plow Unders and Pulse of the Tangles in Kamigawa Standard.  I remember losing hard to the BG "Rock" decks with Barter in Blood, Death Cloud, etc.  Man I liked that deck, it really crushed most decks into the ground, with recursive removal, and Plow Under to kill all hope.

That was like a million years ago though, and pretty much nothing from that era is around any more.  The format was Scars/Beseiged/NPH draft.  They had 36 people there, and room for perhaps two tables inside, so we went out into the general mall area to find some tables.  The third draft pod lucked out there, but there wasn't enough room for our pod as well.  We moved back inside the store, and the employees moved some tables and chairs around, and we had our setup.  It was kinda cool, because we had 36 people, and there were 36 packs in each box, so we managed to consume three boxes of cards exactly between the various drafts.

I opened my NPH pack, and took a look at the cards.

What I remember was Volt Charge, Reaper of Sheoldred, Grim Affliction, Parasitic Implant.  With three good Black cards, and the only other red card in the pack being something absolutely terrible (Ruthless Invasion?) I grabbed the Volt Charge, and put what I presume to be several people on my left into Black.  I don't even remember the rare, I think it was an artifact?  Soul Conduit perhaps?

I grabbed the next pack, and snatched another Volt Charge.  The next pack had a Razor Swine, and the pack after that had another Volt Charge (cha ching!)

I grabbed an Artillerize, a Flameborne Hellion, an Immolating Souleater, another Razor Swine and a Blinding Souleater to round out what i played from the pack, with a Suture Priest, Shriek Raptor,Furnace Scamp and two Ruthless Invasions to round out my "Red".

I felt pretty good at this point.  I had 4 solid removal spells, the tapper, the phyrexian firebreather, two Razor Swines and a Craw Wurm cemeting me in red, with maybe some white, but nothing too strong pulling me in that direction, just like the pros!

So, I open the MBS pack, and hope I see something big and rare staring back at me, but the pack was 100% blank.  There was absolutely nothing I'd want to play in it, and a Green Sun's Zenith, which I took presuming that it was worth something (and likely more, with Valakut coming back with a vengance).  I grabbed  Burn the Impure out of the next two packs, and a Mortarpod out of the fourth.  The fifth pack was pretty terrible, and I took some artifact, looking to stay open (Bladed Sentinal, or Hexplate Golem, I forget which).  The next pack had a Into the Core, which was pretty awesome given my 0.0 artifact removal spells at the time.  Next came a blank pack, which I took a Tangle Mantis out of (bleh), and then I saw like a 7th pick Fangren Marauder.  I grabbed it immediately, and filled out the rest of the pack with another Tangle Mantis, a Ringleader, a Plaguemaw Beast, and a bunch of other terrible cards.

So at this point, I have a Shriek Raptor, and a Blinding Souleater pulling me towards White, and a Fangern Marauder, two Tangle Mantises, and a Plaguemaw beast pulling me towards Green.  I know I'm going to play the Fangren and the Blinding Souleater in whatever deck I make, so I'll just be filling in either option with whatever cards I see in pack three.  I was pretty worried near the end of this pack that I'd not have any creatures in my deck, and that it would just be all removal spells, but I picked up some "solid" fatties near the end, in the Plaguemaw Beast and the Ringleader.

I open Mimic Vat, and take it, since if there's anything this deck can do, it is kill creatures, and I might as well use them if they're just going to put them in the graveyard.

In the next few picks, I saw an Arc Trail, a Molder Beast, and a Sylvok Replica, which I gladly took.  I also got a pretty late Slice in Twain, and a Turn to Slag, which felt awesome against a potential weakness of my deck (high toughness creatures).  The Replica and the Slice shored up huge holes in the enchantment front, since people will want to steal or pacify my various Craw Wurms.

I ended up getting 2x Molder Beast, 1x Cystbearer (Early defense, and apparently lethal offense), as well as a Embersmith and Lifesmith, to go with a Flameborn Hellion and a Viridian Revel.   I ended up playing neither smith, because my main-deck had something like 5 artifacts.

The final list, for comparison:
Removal:
3x Volt Charge
2x Burn the Impure
Into the Core
Arc Trail
Mortarpod
Artillerize (almost left it on the sideboard, since I have no artifacts, and few creatures)
Turn to Slag
Slice in Twain
Sylvok Replica
Blinding Souleater

Infect creatures:
Cystbearer
Razor Swine (+1x in Sideboard)

Dinosaurs:
Fangren Marauder
Flameborn Virion
2x Molder Beast
2x Tangle Mantis

Other:
Mimic Vat
Immolating Souleater

Lands:
9x Mountain
8x Forest
1x Plains

Not played:

Green:
Lifesmith
Plaguemaw Beast
Green Sun's Zenith
Viridian Revel
Tel-Jilad Defiance

Red:
Embersmith
Kuldotha Ringleader
Razor Swine
2x Ruthless Invasion
Furnace Scamp
Flameborn Hellion

White:
Suture Priest
Shriek Raptor
Bladed Sentinal:

Artifact:
Training Trone
Hexplate Golem
Necrogen Censer

Horrible:
Horrifying Revelation  (I saw some people maining this, ug)

I had alot of dinosaurs to choose from.  I went with the Flameborn Virion over the Flameborn Hellion, because it was +1 power, and it allowed me to not have to attack.  I went with Molder Beasts over Ringleaders, because trample is pretty awesome, and I can kill some artifacts.  Hexplate Golem hit the sidelines, because he was the most expensive of all options, and was vulnerable to artifact removal.  I could definitely see playing a different set of creatures for my dino slots, I'd be happy to hear opinions form the peanut gallery about other approaches to this pool.

I really didn't have room for a ton of creatures in my deck, because of all the removal, so they all had to be fairly independantly good.  Razor Swine *1 was a nod to aggro, but I left the other one in the board because there are a ton of one damage (or one -1/-1 counter) effects, and I can't have a win condition die to Blisterstick, Virulent Wound, or Pith Driller.  I did bring in the 'Smiths and the Razor Swine against the most aggroeyest deck I saw, but they were just there to block.

The card I was most unsure of was the Blinding Souleater.  I had so much removal already, that this seemed like the worst piece, and it was also an artifact, so it would draw alot of early fire, with me not having a ton of other outlets for their spells in my deck.  It also did dilute my mana somewhat, I did have some practice hands where I had no red or no double green mana, which worried me.

I played 18 lands, because I felt like my deck was pretty awesome, and all I needed to do was play my spells, and I'd be in the game.

============================================

Match One, against "Ramey" (apologies for the poor spelling), playing UR bounce-everything, and sporting a pretty nifty hat.

The first game, I got him to 6 poison, and 7 life, via Razor Swine and Molder Beast.  He played Vapor Snag, Quicksilver Geyser, and Disperse to keep my big dinosaurs bouncing between in play and on the battlefield.  He got me pretty close to death with these tempo plays, with a Koth's Courier and another 1-power guy beating down, but a Burn on the Courier, and more and more mana off the top let me eventually play two dinosaurs a turn, even with some of them being bounced, which was good enough for the win.

In the next game, he got off to a fast start with a Chancellor of the Forge into some semi-aggro creatures, but I had a mitt full of removal, and eventually got to a stable board position with a bunch of dinosaurs waiting to come down (and be bounced).  The poison squad didn't show up this time, and Tangle Mantis did 21 damage to him over 7 turns.

We played another game for fun, and let me tell you, Chancellor of the Forge on a Mimic Vat is filthy...

===========================================

I was getting pretty hungry at this point, so I asked how long was left in the round.  They said 15 minutes, and I was pretty sure I wouldn't be able to order, wait for preparation, and eat food in that time, so I walked around checking out the other matches.  People were having a pretty good time, and there was alot of magic going on, between the remaining draft games, and a few games of standard that were going on to fill time.

Round two was against Allen, who seemed quite professional.  He had a playmat, and dice at the ready.  He was playing a URB deck, that always had Grixis mana on turn three.  He was playing some reasonable removal, and had quite a few Ichor Wellsprings in all of the games, so I always felt like he was in a better spot than me.

In both games, I had Mortarpod, which was quite good against his lower-toughness creatures, and Mimic Vat also made an appearance.  I had Sylvok Replica on it in one of the games, and even though I feel like I could have played way better with it, it comboed pretty well with a Molder Beast and Mortarpod to kill from 20 in three swings.   We did attrition each other out fairly well, but I felt like I had limitless removal, and far bigger creatures to draw off the top.

He did draw and cast Tezzeret a few times across the games, but he animated a Ichor Wellspring both times, and Tezzeret did not live through my turn.  I'm not sure whether the blue or the Black was the splash, probably the black.

My Flameborn Virion did get Corrupted Concienced in game two, but I had a sandbagged Sylvok Replica to solve that problem.  Seriously, 12 removal spells (2 of them being multi-target) is pretty insane.  The dinosaurs took home the match, after we ran each other out of gas dealing with our threats.

===========================

My third round was against Mark.  Mark appeared to know which end of the sword to hold, and came out quite strong with a RW aggro deck against my slower creatures.

I won the first game to Red Sun Zenith + Panic Spellbomb, after getting him to 8 life and 6 poison (yay poison squad?)  Mark had plenty of removal for my Souleater (and other artifacts), and some one damage removal to take care of my early defense, so all three matches were very close.

If he had drawn RSZ in either of the other two matches, and had it to use on me, I almost certainly would have lost.  He had a good amount of metalcraft, and I was able to disrupt his artifact sources somewhat with Arc Trail and Into the Core, but he kept swinging with 2/4 ground guys and 2/2 flyers.

He had Arc Trail, the good white golem-guy, Divine Offering (which swing races well), Blinding Souleater, and Immolating Souleater, so his deck was pretty strong, but I eventually dropped some dinos that he couldn't remove, and swung for the win in 5 point incriments.  If he'd drawn a RSZ anywhere in there, I'd have been a goner!

We chatted a bit after the match, and he seemed to be a pretty nice guy.  It was hard to lose or win those matches, because they were definitely the closest on record.  (and my only loss thus far, lucky me!)

I asked for the time in the round after we finished chatting, and it was only 10 minutes this time.  I was pretty hungry though, and got a teriyaki bowl from a local store.  It was okay, but mall prices are always outrageous.  I ate it as quickly as possible, and thankfully another match went to time, so I got to eat a few more fork-fulls of rice before the "finals".

=============================

The fourth game was against Brian.  He wanted to draw, because he wanted to get home, but we weren't sure how the prizes were going to pay out, or really what was happening at all, so I decided to play.  My deck felt pretty strong, and the games would be over pretty quick either way.

He came out of the gates with Razor Claw and some infect creatures, which I handled with my copious removal.  Once the early offense was stalled, and the Fangren Marauder level threats started hitting, he scooped up his cards, clearly mana flooded.

In the next game, I got a Whispering Spectre on my Mimic Vat, but for some reason didn't use the Vat, and instead played some dinosaur.  He Corruptored the Vat, and I countered with a Fangren Marauder, at 3 poison from the Virulent Wound I knew he had (to finish off a Molder Beast) and an early Clawed-Spectre hit.

I thought things were looking good after I dropped Marauder vs his Corruptor, but then he played a Contagion Engine.  I then understood why he was in the top tables.  Being Green-Red, I should have alot of artifact removal, but most all of my removal was for creatures, not stock artifacts.  I swung with the 4-power Marauder, and played a Molder Beast.  He double-proliferated the Marauder (and me - 5 poison).  I played a Blinding Souleater, and Volt Charged the Corruptor, swinging in for 6 after the double-proliferate (me at 7 poison).   He untapped and played a Ezuri's Archers.

I had at most one more turn to seal the deal before I was proliferated out, so I tapped the Archers with the Souleater, and swung in with the Molder Beast.  My draw for the turn was perfect, as Artillerize, saccing the Souleater finished him off.  I was pretty sure I was going to lose that game, but sometimes you just get lucky.

Brian got lucky with his reward-packs, opening a Batterskull, and a Sword of War and Peace.

I collected up my 10 packs, and promo Rhox War Monk (??), thanked the owners for a well-run event, and congratulated them on dealing with the adversity of the high volume of participants, and headed home.

Since coming back to magic, I'm something like 8-0 in live tournaments, and 50% at best online with Pyromancer.  Maybe the banning of SFM + Jace pushing me into Splinter Twin will be for the best...

Monday, June 20, 2011

SFM, Jace TMS Banned!

I wrote quite a bit about why SFM was bad in another post, check the archives about that.

SFM being banned caused a rather bizzare ruling that the event deck is legal if it is played unchanged.  I don't know that there were any equipment in the event deck, that was in any competitive deck that didn't have Puresteel Paladin.

I mean, how would you like to play these in your standard deck:
1x Darksteel Axe
4x Flayer Husk
1x Skinwing
1x Sickleslicer (basically counts as an innate 2:1, because it is Flayer Husk 5 and 6 in one card!)
1x Bonehoard (seen in some now-dead Boros lists)
1x Sword of Vengance

The event deck also has 1x Puresteel Paladin so you can "go off" with your Flayer Husks.

Link to the full event deck.  Begin your trembling now!

13 artifacts (+2 Dread Statuaries) would not quite be enough to turn metalcraft on in a 40 card deck, I wouldn't count on seeing metalcraft too often in this 60.

Clearly, Stoneforge Mystic was an enabler that was too powerful.  Near uncounterable, enabling near uncounterable follow ups that did a pretty good job of crushing aggro decks.  The recent success of some hyper-aggro strategies could only last until the next week, when simple swaps of sideboard or maindeck Day of Judgement, Gideon Jura, or other non-mirror cards made their way back into the Caw Blade decks.

I am somewhat surprised that JTMS was banned as well.  You won't find me tearing up over it, because he invalidated most any creature with CMC >= 4, but so did the Titan cycle + Wurmcoil Engine.

Buy stock in your Obliterators now...

I'm somewhat surprised that something didn't happen to restrict Valakut.  Valakut has a postive matchup against pretty much anything but Caw Blade, which meant it was unplayable in Standard.  With Caw-Blade gone, and Jace decks suffering, who's going to make a dent in Valakut + 4x Pyroclasm + 4x Slagstorm...

Anyway, big shake-up to be sure, and being implimented in 1.5 weeks from now.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Anti-Aggro testing - 6/11

Taking a look at the previous posts, I went with:
4x See Beyond
1x Pyroclasm (4x blue spell, means I need 1x anti-aggro for sure)
1x Koth, of the Hammer (Great with proliferate)
1x Shatter (fine as a 1-of)
1x Red Sun's Zenith (finisher, RFG vs some problematic cretaures)

Since I went with 4x blue spell, instead of the 4x red multi-kill spell (Arc Trail) I was running previously, it seemed prudent to test against some of the popular aggro matchups, to make sure things are still working okay there, with a lower threat density against those deck types.  Now, it's possible (probable) that Caw-Blade, aka T3 Baneslayer Angel is going to pound those decks into the ground, but the MtGO community sure likes it's aggro, so we're likely to face it at least 25% of the time no matter how terrible it is.
















First up as an opponent is RB Vampires.  It's seen some play, and between Manic Vandal, Crush, and removal for the Mystic, it is at least claimed to have some game against the Caw Blade menace.

I played 20 games against the deck, and PA won 11 of the set.  In 6 of those wins, Pyroclasm was drawn and cast for at least a 2:1, and in another win, Pyroclasm was drawn but not cast.  In one other game, Pyroclasm was drawn, but was not quite enough on turn 6.

In the BR Vampire deck wins, they had the most success with hands like 1x land, 3x 1-drop, Bloodghast/Highborne, where they drew enough lands to play all their spells.  The games that went long, they lost pretty hard.  Theyu had only two of their wins that were later than turn 6.  In those games, PA had See Beyond for all lands, and no dead cards + burn spells.

Red Sun Zenith exiled 5 Bloodghasts, 2 other creatures, did 20 damage, and was shuffled away once.

I think if we'd have had 4 Pyroclasms (in place of, say, See Beyond), with a couple ways to exile Bloodghasts, the Vampire lists wouldn't have had much of a shot at winning.  The See Beyonds pretty much drew me a land and a spell, and I shuffled the land away.  There was perhaps one instance of See Beyond where it actually drew me two cards and shuffled away a land or dead shatter in my hand.  Rotating those out for Pyroclasm seems solid, since it was pretty hard to lose the games with Pyroclasm, and often it was my only out.

In the later games (PA took 7 of the first 10) I gave the Vamp list knowledge of what it was playing against, which cause it to mulligan away some otherwise good hands (Gatekeeper, Highborne, bolt, Doom blade, 3 land), into hands with multiple one-drops, and/or Bloodghasts, which were the only way the Vamp deck was winning.  They did go 6-4 with that knowledge, so some amount of sideboarding here would be viable.

The matchup seems pretty good for PA, in that the Vampires deck needs a heavily skewed hand to compete, and Pyroclasm kills literally everything in the deck.  Some discard spells out of the sideboard could be good for the vampires deck, but it seems like it would just slow them down, and prevent the omni-1-drop hands that were overwhelming my 1:1 removal.

Shatter was completely dead,  and was seen around 6 times.  Twice it was bottomed off a scry, once it was shuffled away to See Beyond, and once it was discareded off a over-draw on a lucky Treasure Hunt.

Koth was bottomed once, ultimated once (won), died to a bolt and arc trail (or it would have won, won that game anyway), twice it was shuffled away (on games I won), and once it just did 4 damage (on a game I won because of that 4 damage).  So it was pretty good, as a way to follow up on an empty board, and threaten a ultimate (which is yet another way to keep Bloodghast under control)

As bad as See Beyond was, Gitaxian probe didn't seem like it would have been much better.   On the casts of See Beyond where I draw land + spell, I get to draw both and get a fresh top of the deck.  On the Gitaxian Probe draws, I typically pay U, and draw only one of those, which is pretty bad.  It's possible that it could let me pay life to draw for no mana, and either charge up faster, or do more things with my mana on those critical turns 3-4, but it's hard to figure out a general trend for how the games would go after playing 20 games.

Viscera Seer was involved in alot of the successful swarms.  Being able to scry away against removal, and make multi-target removal like Staggershock relatively bad gave the deck alot of follow-up, and sustainability.  Viscera Seer turn 2, with two other one-drops was always a near-lethal opening, unless Lightning Bolts abounded. (or Pyroclasm of course)

Highborne draining for 2 on being killed was a common play, but was often put me below 10, or combined with other effects to make things untenable.

Bloodghast was pretty good against removal, and Pyroclasm.

The PA deck did keep some bad hands, that lost.    Mana problems were present, keeping the 1-mountain 2-bolt, 2-blue spell hand, that never saw more blue.  Or not having any removal to deal with the early swarm.

The sideboard I want for this matchup is 2-3x Pyroclasm, 1x Exile-effect. (RSZ or Surgical Extraction), for 1x Shatter, and Koth or See Beyond.  Pyroclasm into Koth is pretty solid.

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I also played 20 games against the most aggro-y aggro deck around, Kuldotha Red.  It has multiple threats, which makes cutting multi-target red spells problematic.  The deck really doesn't give you alot of time to figure out what you're wanting to do.

The games felt absolutely horrible, but in the end, we split the games 10-10.

The deck was absolutely dead to pyroclasm.  I saw the card 9 times.  I bottomed it once(!).  I won 7 of the games.  And I nearly won a Mull to 3 (two lands and a blue spell) that drew into a Pyroclasm for a 2:1.  I didn't get there on the mull to 3 two land + blue spell hand though.

For casting the Pyroclasm, I killed: 4, 2, 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 4 creatures.

The Koth was seen 4 times.  Once it did 8 damage, and I won.  Once it 4, and gained me 5 life, in a game I won.  And twice, I did not cast it (lost on turn 5, 3).  It's possible that I bottomed it a few times in there too, but I didn't record it.  The games were very short, so I didn't see as many cards as the vampires matchup.

Shatters were okay in this matchup, they mostly killed Signal Pests, but they sometimes killed ornithopters, or large-ish Chimeric Masses.

RSZ killed things, and sometimes people.  I did win all but one of the games where I drew RSZ, though it wasn't exactly amazing.

The games the red deck won were over on turn 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4.  This gives you an idea of the sort of games the KR was winning.  Putting 5 (10) power on the table turn 1 was hard to come back from.

The red deck did win quite a few games it mulliganed.  Summons into Bushwhacker was also a good way to get alot of power on the board.

I'd want Pyroclasms for this matchup, more than any other.  The KR deck just doesn't come back from Pyroclasm.  Shatter is okay, but I'd probably just swap out all the one-ofs, to fit in 4x Pyroclasm.  Maybe keep Shatter or Koth, taking out See Beyond, but either way, it's pretty similar.
The KRed deck doesn't exactly have a ton of cards to bring in against me, so as long as you keep a Shatter to deal with a random Jinxed Idol, you should be in good shape.

=======================
I do want to try out some GW quest to round out the aggro matchup, because that's another matchup where Shatter and Recursion and necessary, but that deck isn't exactly seeing alot of play right now.  So I'll likely skip it for now.

Decks like GW Fauna/Stoneforge (no quest), or Bant/Naya Stoneforge, or xyz Stoneforge are way more popular (aka viable) nowadays.  So I'm going to wrap up this, by saying:

Taking 4x Arc Trail (good) out for 4x See Beyond (Bad) does not kill my aggro matchup game one.  

It seems about even, perhaps slightly in the PA deck's favor.  Having three Pyroclasm, and perhaps a Shatter (for other matchups), or Extraction/RSZ to deal with some recursion (which is also likely there for other matchups) is all we likely need to swing these matchups in our favor.

Only having to dedicate 3 sideboard slots to multiple aggro matchups is pretty nice.  Using a few other utility cards to mix in depending on the matchup.  Kor Firewalker is pretty problematic, but maybe Koth, or a 1-2x Sphynx of Jwar Isle will be good enough to take over that.

I also like having a main-deck that is not skewed towards aggro, so that I can have a sideboard against aggro, and be playing a more moderate main-deck.  The 1x Pyroclasm was an amazing one-of.

I worry a bit about being able to kill a Stoneforge Mystic before they use it.  I was counting on Arc Trail for a lot of the turn-two Stoneforge removal, so it'll be interesting to see how those games go.

The caw-blade games are definitely next up on the docket.  They are the prime offender, the #1 deck right now, and if I can't perform there, this is not a deck worth playing.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Left to decide: 4x1-of

I really like the 4x 1-of principle.  Normal PA theory says play 4-ofs, and lands.  However, this version of the PA deck has so many ways to "free" charge the PA, that we can have a few splash cards to fill in holes the deck has, and provide some strong utility.  In the past, we had to get our utility from 4-ofs, so we basically had to use Into the Roil, because it was the best general solution we could play as a 4-of.

However, now with easy charging, we can just throw in some 1-ofs to round out the last slot, and we can have our utility, and also have our PA's.  We see so many cards during a normal game, that we can expect to draw a 1-2-of at a reasonable frequency, perhaps every other game, presuming we want to draw it.

The cards need to solve problems the deck has.  The deck has a relatively hard time:
1) Dealing with super-swarm creature decks.  (Because Pyroclasm is bad as a 4-of)
2) Dealing with recursive creatures.  (Because you have to keep killing them)
3) Having some "action" after you've found and charged your ascension.  (So you don't run out of cards, and die anyway)

The poster-card for this is Foresee.
Foresee is pretty much the best spell you can cast to find Pyromancer Ascension.  It is twice as good as Preordain or Jace's Ingenuity, and three times as good as pretty much any other spell.  Being able to ship 4 cards, or draw the best card in the top 4 and a random card is simply amazing.

Foresee is also pretty much the best spell you can cast once you are Ascended.  There's no card I'd want to draw off the top with 8 mana, than this.  It draws more physical cards and looks at more cards, than pretty much any other spell.

Preordain is awesome, but only because it costs U instead of U3, and both find you action to keep going.  Every Foresee that I put in is two more Preordains, which is pretty hard to resist.

I wouldn't play more than two of these, because it does cost 4 mana, but playing one seems clearly better than playing 0.

Putting some spells like this into the deck can dramatically change what your deck is capable of, while still staying "on track" for the general theme of the deck.

What are some other options for this type of slot?

Shatter is pretty good in this metagame.  Sword of War and Peace, Batterskull, Spellskite, and Argentum Armor are nigh-impossible to beat without a card like this in the deck.  Into the Roil can do some of this as a delay option, but it's alot better to just kill it, than to bounce it.

Pyroclasm as a one-of main-deck could really mess some people up.  It's "better" than Arc Trail for clearing out swarms, and will rarely be dead.  (Exarch-Twin, ug)  It is cheap, and powerful, which are things we're looking for out of this sort of slot.  If we put a Pyro in, we can probably afford to play something like See Beyond instead of Arc Trail for the 4-of slot.
Surgical Extraction seems like an awesome card to have at least in the sideboard as a 1-of.  It answers some seriously problematic creatures, like Vengevine and Bloodghast for a very low cost.  It also does a number on ExarchTwin, presuming you deal with one copy of one of their spells (not guaranteed).  It is a reasonable answer to Squadron Hawk (easy to kill the first one), or as an answer to their answer to Pyromancer Ascension, once they play it.  Being able to see their plan, and their hand, puts this into a kind of super-Gitaxian-Probe like slot, where you have a shot at destroying part of their plan, instead of drawing a card.  Extracting a super-card like Jace,  Primeval, or Valakut could also do a number on the plan of some decks.  Even just Extracting Preordain could have some value.  Not a incredible card, but one to keep in mind, that won't show up on most of my filters for PA cards.

Call to mind is one card in this list thas is better as a two-of than a one-of.  Being able to CTM your CTM + one other card is a good way to grind out some longer games, and reuse some of these other one-ofs.  Surreal Memoir is "better" at getting more cards earlier, but Call to Mind replaces the word "random" with the word "Target", and shaves off a point of mana.  It can also get key Sorceries (like Foresee, Preordain, Pyroclasm) that Surreal Memoir can't.  Surreal is probably better if there is only one slot for this, Call to Mind is better for two.
Let the crazyness begin!  Before you dismiss this entirely, there are a few things to consider about this spell.   It is an easier-to-cast Searing Blaze, that does twice as much damage to the player.  It's a colorless token, so it blocks sworded creatures.  It sticks around to attack them.  It gets value out of leaving mana up (it's an instant).  It is an absurd 12 damage once Ascended that is immune to sorcery speed removal (assuming you ambush them at their end of turn).   It is big enough to kill Titans, and it kills Kor Firewalkers.  (Even with swords!)  It blocks (sworded) Gideons without dying.  It kills planeswalkers fairly well, because it tramples.  It doesn't deal with flying creatures (Squadron Hawk, Vampire Nighthawk, Consecrated Sphynx) that well, but that's really the only chink in it's armor.  It is an anti-creature card, that is never truly dead.  Casting it for the full 6 against a "control" deck isn't awesome, and it does turn on creature/artifact removal, so it is not entirely upside, but it could be incredible in the main, or the board.


An alternative to Surgical Extraction, this card doubles as a kill condition, as well as removal for pesky Vengevines and Bloodghasts.  It's far more expensive than Surgical Extraction, but it may fit the theme of the deck better, and be less dead in the other matchups.
Deprive is one of the better counterspells because it is a hard counter, that allows you to re-use Halimar Depths.  Its cost is fairly steep (UU) in our mostly R deck, but having a singleton counterspell of some type (Mana Leak, Negate, Spell Pierce) could be solid

Other considerations:
Phyrexian Mana:
Noxious Revival (put a card from your graveyard on top of your library.  can regrow your PA's)
Dismember (-5/-5 for 1PBPB, aka 1 + 4 life)

Sorceries:
Demolish (destroy land/artifact for 3R)
Devistating Summons (sac lands for cretaures - sideboard only obviously - terrible against Jace/Gideon)
Recurring Inisght (6 mana draw-spell with rebound)
Rite of Replication (clone, with multikicker)
Slagstorm (3 damage to players, or creatures for 1RR)
Surreal Memoir (random instant regrowth, with rebound, 3R)

Instants:
Act of Aggression (type)
Aether Tradewinds (bounce one of yours and mine for 2U)
Blue Sun's Zenith (UUU)
Combust (Sideboard)
Comet Storm (multikicker fireball)
Fuel for the Cause (Counter->Proliferate for UU2)
Into the Core (2RR, exile two target artifacts, instant)
Into the Roil (bounce/draw for 1U, 2UU)
Permafrost Trap (multi-tap trap)
Redirect (you choose targets for a spell, UU)
Reverberate (Fork, RR Instant)
Ricochet Trap (R counterspell/redirect)
Spell Contortion (counter/draw)
Turn Aside (U, counter a spell that targets PA, doesn't work on creatures)
Twisted Image (swap Power/toughness, draw a card for U, instant)
Twitch (twiddle, draw a card for 2U)
Unstable Footing (Damage can't be prevented, kicker do 5 damage for R, RR3)
Whiplash Trap (multi-unsummon trap)

Conclusions:
If my 4x is a burn spell (Searing Blaze/Arc Trail/Burst Lightning),
1x Foresee (Great at finding PA, great at getting action post-PA)
1x Shatter (RW Sword, Batterskull, Argentum Armor, Spellskite)



If my 4x is a draw spell (See Beyond, Gitaxian Probe)
1x Shatter
1x Pyroclasm
1x Red Sun's Zenith

I wouldn't mind having some recursion, either 2x Call to Mind, or 1x Surreal Memoir.

It is pretty frustrating the number of combinations I have to go through.  Just being able to make the call between the two draw spells and the three burn spells as the 4x would make picking the 1xes alot easier.

Left to Decide: 1x 4-off

Preordain, Bolt, Staggershock, Volt Charge, Tezzeret's Gambit, and Pyromancer Ascension are solid locks.  The one-mana spells can't be beat for efficiency, and the three-mana spells do crazy things for charing up Pyromancer Ascension.
Treasure Hunt is getting close to a solid lock.  It draws a ton of cards, it keeps the mana flowing, and Halimar Depths solves alot of problems.  If I didn't play Treasure Hunt, I'd be playing something like See Beyond, or Gitaxian Probe to try and fill this area.  The deck really needs card drawing, and spells that cost less than three mana, and this fits both of those.

This fills 7 "slots" in the deck, or 28 cards.  I don't see myself playing any of these as less than a 4-of, due to the nature of Ascension, and because all of them are pretty solid cards to begin with.  If any of them "really" cost more than 3, or were super-slow, I might consider going to a 2 or 3-of (Ex: Foresee, Call to Mind, etc), but none of these qualify.

The deck really really needs at least 22 lands.   I'm inclined to play 24 just because of the 4x nature of it, and it feels okay.  Treasure Hunt likes lands.  Getting to 6 (to play two 3-drops) is important, and playing a land every turn for the first 4-5 turns is important as well.  Recent testing has shown that I've been a bit blue-screwed, so I probably have to add more Islands than I had previously, but that's up in the air.

I'd only go to 23 land instead of 24, to add another solid 1-of.

==================

So, lets talk 4-ofs.

We need at least one 4-of to fill in the 8th "slot" in the deck.  Having 4 of a particular spell is important due to the nature of the deck.  I often fully charge, or get the first counter to proliferate, off one of my non-3cc spells, like Preordain or Treasure Hunt.  This would need to fill that area as well, because the deck needs a ton of consistancy to do well.

The card has to have certaion qualities to work well in the deck.

1) It has to be card drawing, or damage.  Utility spells are fine, but utility spells:
A) Have a hard time being cast in a general situation.  You won't always have a target to Into the Roil, or Shatter, or Mana Leak.  Not being able to cast your spell means you can't charge PA, or get into a clearly game-winning situation.
B) Clog up the opening hand, may be dead in a matchup.  Drawing 2xShatter (when I only had 2x Shatter in the deck) was horrible against a deck with no artifacts.

Card drawing is amazing because the more of it you have, the easier it is to charge up the PA.  Damage is good, because it allows you to deal with creatures, and double as your win condition.

2) The card has to have an option to be cast for less than three mana.
A) The deck already has 12 3-drops, and probably a couple more 3+ drops in the utility spells.
B) The deck needs to be able to do some things on turn 1-2, and a second thing to do on turn 4-5 when combined with one of the many 3-drops.
C) It can have a kicker cost to pump it up above 3, but it must be castable for 0, 1, 2 mana.

3) The card must be an instant or sorcery.
A) It has to work well with the Ascension. (Pre and Post-Ascending)
B) Planeswalkers are powerful, but for example, a Jace Beleren draws you 3 cards for 3 mana, but a See Beyond draws you 1-2 cards, for 2 mana, and draws you 4 for two mana once you're Ascended.
C) Artifacts are nifty, but they are also more vulnerable.
D) Creatures are good, but better out of the sideboard, to totally blank your opponents main-deck answers.

Card Drawing:
The best options that fit all of these categories are:
Gitaxian Probe
See Beyond

The options that fit two of those requirements are:
Into the Roil (2.5, whatever)
Steady Progress (Proliferate is good)

Card drawing is some of the best stuff you can draw off the top post-ascension, and some of the best ways to charge up and find your Ascension.


















Gitaxian Probe is awesome because it costs 0 mana.  Mana is very tight when you have so many 3's, and when you have so many things you can draw, and so many spells to cast.  Gitaxian Probe is bad, because it isn't really awesome in your opening hand (you can't know what it is that you'll draw), and is fairly low-impact.  It doesn't find PA very well (only look at 1 new card), and isn't amazing at finding action once ascended, so those are things that limit it.  But costing 0 is a phenominal advantage.

See Beyond works well with Treasure Hunt, because you are much more likely to have an extra land to shuffle away when you draw so many extra cards (lands) with TH.  It is also pretty okay if you happen to have a bad one-of for that matchup.  See Beyond works terribly with Scry (Preordain, Foresee), but with 1x Foresee, that might not be a huge problem.

The other options are okay, but I like ITR alot more as a 1-of, than a 4-of.  Drawing one in your opening hand is almost a mulligan, which you can't really afford in this deck.  Having 4 of them makes that even more likely.

Burn:
The same general requirements apply to the burn section.  Also:

1) The damage has to be able to go to their head.
There's nothing worse than sitting on Pyroclasms when their board is empty.  Best case, you're going to 1:1 them with the spell, and you have to be okay drawing 2-3 of this spell during the course of a general game.

2) It helps if it is an instant.
Being able to hold up mana means they may play around the counters that aren't even in the deck.  You can't get <3cc card drawing as an instant, but you can definately get burn in that category.

3) Two damage is really the minimum. 
Alot of the threats have two damage, and part of being able to go to the head means that it has to go to the head in a credible way. 

4) Being able to multi-target, or have multiple functionality helps alot as a general slot.
Dealing with creature swarms
Getting in some incidental damage to the player helps bring them down to the area of being able to one-turn-kill them.

The biggest contenders here are:
Burst Lightning
Arc Trail
Searing Blaze




Searing Blaze would be the only double-colored mana spell in the deck.  It combos well with Scalding Tarn to function as an instant.  It does the most total damage of any option here, for the least cost (6, 2).  It is also the only spell in here with a targetting requirement (they have to have a creature).  It is clearly better at killing one creature than any of the other options here.  It combos to kill high-toughness creatures better than any other option.  It kills planeswalkers pretty well. 

It is the highest varience option.  It is the most powerful option.  It is the hardest option to cast.

Arc Trail is pretty good against creature decks, and is never dead (can always target self).  It's the most general, least objectionable option here.  The incidental damage from this is pretty marginal, and being a sorcery isn't exactly great.

Burst Lightning is a card I used to play with.  It's an instant, and it has some reasonable face-targetting options.

Searing Blaze is really backbreaking when it works.  It is superior to any of the other options here, presuming that you can cast it for the full value.  It is just the hardest card to cast for full value.

Monday, June 6, 2011

Now that charging PA is easy, how about finding it?

Volt Charge, Staggershock, and Tezzeret's Gambit make charging PA once, twice, or even three times fairly trivial.  This is really good news for the PA deck, because common answers to it are becoming cards like Into the Roil, which force you to start from zero again.  When you can be back on track for 3 mana and 1 card, while accomplishing something worth doing, you're going to be in good shape.

If we "lock in" those three cards, as well as the staple spells we're used to using (Bolt, Preordain), we end up filling out the rest with draw, burn, and utility.

Currently we're using Arc Trail to decimate aggro, while never being dead, and always being castable.

We're using Treasure Hunt, because it always finds more "gas", and often sets us up for land for the rest of the game.  The combo with Halimar Depths (which is pretty okay on it's own) is not to be ignored either.

Shatter turns the caw-blade matchup from auto-lose, to 50-50 or better (need more testing), so that rounds out the utility section, as a 1-2-of.

That leaves one-ish "slot" (2-4 cards) to fill in with something.

Searing Blaze is currently occupying this slot.  It is the hardest-to-cast spell, both because you need a land (or a fetchland), and RR open, and a creature on their side, but it does the most damage-per-casting-cost of any spell around.  It also does the incidental damage that we need to bring an opponent into one-turn-kill range.  However, Searing Blaze certainly hasn't locked this spot up.

There are a couple ways that the PA deck loses games.  The most common are:
1) Recurring threats.  Bloodghast, Sun Titan, Vengevine.
Solutions: Red Sun's Zenith.  Kill them before it matters.
2) Untargettable threats.  Thrun, Calcite Snapper, Gaea's Revenge, Sphinx of Jwar Isle.
Solutions: Kill them before it matters.
3) Not drawing Ascension
Solutions: Put in more card draw/filtering.  Be self-sufficient without it.
4) Running out of gas even with Ascensions.  Drawing more Ascensions, drawing land.  Typically the first card draw spell once ascended is game-over, but sometimes all it draws is land.
Solutions: Put in more card draw.

I do like the idea of going 1x Red Sun's Zenith.  It's a reasonable finisher, that also plugs some holes in the deck.  It won't ever charge PA, but it can go to the head, and drawing it off the top with 7+ lands is going to be pretty deadly.

As far as card draw, to find, and/or give gas after ascending, there are a few main candidates.  From cheapest to most expensive:

Gitaxian Probe is the cheapest possible card draw, at a potential 0 mana.  After ascending, it would often draw me plenty of cards, and leave me the mana to use them.

However, as a straight-up draw-one, this is limited in how effective it can be.  The information can be valuable, or useless.  It's also hard to know whether you need to spend the life or not, because you don't know whether you can use the mana. 

I did like it when I played with it, and costing 0 is a big deal.








See Beyond is an old standby.  It is hailed as a "standard" card for this archtype by many.  As a two-mana draw-one, I've never been terribly impressed.  If you just discarded the card after drawing, it'd be so much better for this deck type (and worse for Shape Anew, etc)

In the deck as it sits, shuffling away your 3rd PA, or one of 4 lands off Treasure Hunt seems relatively good.  Treasure Hunt does draw you alot of extra cards, and as far as two-mana draw spells, this is the only option outside Treasure Hunt that we're already playing.

See Beyond just combos so poorly with other aspects of the deck though.  Lets say you Halimar Depths turn 1, and don't like any of the cards.  See Beyond "shuffles" them away for you, to be sure, but only after you draw all three of them!  See Beyond shuffles the land you put on the bottom with Preordain back in the deck, and it's not uncommon to Preordain 6-12 cards to the bottom of your deck over the course of a game.

Revealing a draw spell with HD is common.  Revealing a See Beyond with HD is pretty terrible.  Preordain can scry the two cards away and give you a new one, in a pinch.  Treasure Hunt can typically draw them all for you, or be set up to be of use.  See Beyond doesn't solve the two-land + draw spell Halimar Depths.

All that said, SB still nets you even overall (like Preordain), and lets you see two cards, for only two mana.

Steady progress is another one-card charge for PA, but it is also another three-mana spell, in a deck that already has 12.  It is an instant, which is awesome, but it is still a relatively minor effect.  I can't imagine being happy casting this post-ascension, where the other three mana spells are pretty devistating.  (Draw 4, Deal 6, Deal 8).  Draw 2 just doesn't compete on that scale.
Foresee was a card in the V1 of the deck, and it rarely dissapointed.  It was a truly back-breaking card post-ascending, and it was pretty good at finding Ascensions.

Getting your pick of the top 6 cards, or top 12 with Ascension active was quite simply game-winning (on the next turn)

Whether Surreal Memoir does the same thing, but from your graveyard instead of your library, is a matter of some concern.  Foresee definately finds the Ascensions better (aka at all).

Now, we're definately not putting in 4x Foresee, because that would make things terribly topheavy.  I didn't even play 4 in V1, because you just didn't ever need to cast more than two in a entire game.  Drawing two early was pretty bad too.



There are some even more expensive options (Blue Sun's Zenith, Jace), but they either don't work with the deck very well, or are too Blue-intensive.

I think Foresee is an excellent 1-2 of in the deck, so I should definately give it a shot.  The other spells need more copies of themselves, to work with the engine, but Foresee sees an immense amount of cards, refuels you for a lethal next turn, and plays well with the proliferate-scry-Halimar Depths theme.  I can't think of a better card to cast once you're ascended, or to find the Ascension in the first place.  It's cost is pretty high, so volume needs to not be maxed out, but we're only looking to fill 2-4 slots anyway, so this is not a true disadvantage for the spell.

While I was writing this, I was thinking "I need to write a post to talk about why I'm putting stupid See Beyond back in as a 2-of".  I'm glad I did, because it just seems better to put 2x Foresee in than 2x See Beyond.

==================================

Lastly, a comment on these "1 ofs" in the deck.  In V1, since it was so hard to charge the PA, and we were playing a bunch of reactive cards, having a ton of 1-ofs would make no sense.  We'd just never ascend, and gradually run out of gas as the game went on.

However, in the new world of easy ascending, we can afford to dedicate one "slot" (4 cards) to random stuff, and it will greatly expand the utility of the deck, without strongly impacting the ability to ascend.

Having the 9th "slot" of the deck as:
1x Red Sun's Zenith
1x Foresee
1x Shatter
1x Into the Roil
could be pretty strong.

Without recursion, without countermagic, and with Caw-Blade being fairly dominant (and spellskite being fairly annoying), this probably needs to be 2x Shatter 0x Into the Roil main, but this sort of card choice could be quite devistating.

Can you imagine going:
1x Mana Leak
1x Spell Pierce
1x Into the Roil
1x Foresee

Your opponent wouldn't have any idea what you might be capable of on any particular turn.  You'll likely see half these cards in a won game, so if your opponent presumes you are playing all 4-ofs, they will be extremely confused, and potentially playing around everything in the next game.  If this slows them down by even a turn, that could be all the time you need to win the game.

Besides, having an "out" to them just casting some terrible spell, while you hold up (red) instant mana is pretty interesting.  Spell Pierce your JTMS is about as good a play as you can make against "those" decks.  The more instants you have, the more of a blowout these one-of instants will be.

Taking suggestions for 4-5 "singletons" (24-23 land) to fill out that last "slot" in the deck.  It could be almost anything from any of the previous posts.  Foresee, RSZ, Mana Leak, Into the Roil, Surreal Memoir, Searing Blaze, and Shatter are the early front-runners.

What do you think is the best combination to add utility, while also finding us the Ascensions/gas we need?

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Vampires testing 6/4

So, in my last post I talked about how it might be a good idea to take out Arc Trail (a sorcery, 4x) for Burst Lightning (an instant, 4x), because it would help out the Exarch-Twin matchup.  More ways to do 4 damage at instant speed = good.
Well, the matchup this would impact the most would be one where the creatures have one toughness.  The most popular version of this at this time seems to be vampires.  So I played some BR Vamps vs Pyro Ascension tonight.

Now, the vampires deck has some pretty terrible cards (4x Go for the Throat, 4x Lightning Bolt, 4x Arc Trail) against Ascension, though the burn can't be prevented, so it can sometimes finish off, or threaten to finish off, if I get too low.  The Ascension deck has 2x Shatter, which are as dead as the GFTTs the vampires deck is packing.

So, in the first set of 8 games, with with Burst Lightnings, the Vampire deck took 7 of the 8 games.

What the heck happened you say?



Viscera Seer was a beating against my "2:1" removal of Staggershock. 

Not only does it "counter" the rebound, it prevents the rebound from charging Ascension.  It forces me to spend removal on it, when many other 2-power guys are killing me.


Bloodghast was it's typical beating, and Kalestria Highborne did a good chunk of damage.
I played 8 more games, with the Arc Trail configuration, and the Ascension deck won 7 of the 8.

In contrast to Staggershock being terrible against Viscera Seer, Arc Trail is amazing against Viscera Seer.  VS is a 1 toughness guy to get worked over, and Arc Trail shuts down the aggressive 1-drop draws from the Vampire deck like nobody's business.  It's easy to cast off a turn 1 Halimar Depths or Preordain, so that's a nice bonus.

There was only one game where Arc Trail was not effectively a Pyroclasm, and there was more than one game where it mattered that it did damage to his head.

Searing Blaze did some big chunks when ascended, for low mana, but I think Red Sun's Zenith could have been an awesome 2-of, to go with 2x Shatter.  (Works wonderfully against Highborne, Bloodghast, as long as Viscera Seer is in the graveyard rather than in play)

==================

Now, of course, I think these ratios would "even out" with more games played.  I don't think that it is really 12% win with Burst Lightning and 88% win with Arc Trail.  But really, the difference between paying one mana to basically kill a Viscera Seer, or paying one more mana to kill the same Viscera Seer, and a whole nother threat, is quite huge.  Staggershock is good, but it can't measure up in the Vampires matchup because of Viscera Seer.  Staggershock as a three-mana kill-one-Viscera-Seer is pretty anti-climactic.

Against even more aggressive decks, like Kuldotha Red (if that's still alive in a land of Batterskulls), being able to kill a Pest + Guide, or just two Goblin Tokens is worth the one extra turn it takes to cast it.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Arc Trail vs Burst Lightning vs Searing Blaze

Currently I am using 4x Arc Trail, 2x Searing Blaze (+2x Searing Blaze sideboard), 0x Burst Lightning.

Arc Trail does a pretty good job of clearing out multiple guys against decks like Vampires, Caw Blade, Kuldotha Red, and other swarmy-type decks.  It gives the potential for card advantage, to go along with Staggershock in the main-deck.  It can also kill off planeswalkers (2 to your Jace B., 1 to your Squadron Hawk is a play I made.  2 to your Overgrown Battlement (+ 2-3 other damage) + 1 to your Lotus Cobra is also a play I made in testing.

It doesn't require any other targets to cast (you can always shoot yourself), it can't be mangled too badly by Spellskite (because of targetting restrictions), and it can finish someone off, which is often a problem for the deck.  It costs 2 easy to cast mana, which is also quite relevant.

Searing Blaze is probably the most powerful of the three spells.  It kills, or combines to kill a creature, and deal some useful damage to the head of a player.  It is an instant.  It combines well with fetchlands to be powered up on their turn.  It provides a key 3 damage, to combine with Bolt, or Volt Charge to take down the 6-toughness threats that exist (Titans, Sphynx).  It also pretty good at killing planeswalkers incidentally, and 3 damage is pretty good at taking down Jace, and several other planeswalkers, perhaps when combined with other sources.  Whatever Adrian Sullivan might say, incidental damage like SB can lower your threshold for victory, while accomplishing a useful purpose.  In that way, it really feels like Searing Blaze is a "two for one" when you can cast it.

The biggest problems with Searing Blaze are the mana cost (RR - the only double colored spell in the deck at present), and targetting restrictions.  You can't cast the spell, if the target player does not have a target creature, which can be quite problematic.  When you can cast SB, it's a 2:1.  When you can't, it's a 0:1.

Burst Lightning was in the way-back original version of the deck, and it performed adequately.  2 damage for 1 mana was nothing to write home about, and 4 damage for 5 was a fine end-of-your-turn play, but didn't do anything too crazy.  What I like about Burst now is that it is an instant, with multiple modes, so it can try to adapt to the killing them, or double-burning some threat, or removing an early problem creature quite well.

Being an instant in a deck full of instants is a pretty good deal.

Arc Trail often gets cast as a minor-Searing Blaze.  2 to your Mystic, 1 to you.  It is castable after a turn 1 Halimar Depths, or Island-Preordain, whereas Searing Blaze would have to wait until turn 3 after a turn 1 blue source.  Burst Lightning is a fine competitor for Arc Trail, in that it answers early threats, that have <=2 toughness (Fauna Shaman, Lotus Cobra, Stoneforge Mystic, or some aggro cretaure), while also going to the head later.  (and for cheaper)

Arc Trail is pretty amazing against creature decks.  Killing Cobra + Shaman, or Viscera Seer + Lacerator is pretty amazingly strong.   And when you get to the true swarm status, it becomes more of a necessity.  If Arc Trail got cut for Burst Lightning, there would have to be Pyroclasms in the sideboard for matchups like GW Quest, Kuldotha Red, Elves, and the like.  Currrently I'm sporting no Pyros main or side, because they're overkill with AT + Staggershock + 8 other burn spells.

Conclusion:
Since the matchup that this will effect the most is the swarm creature decks (Kuldotha Red, GW Quest), I'll try some games with 4x Burst, 2x Searing (2x Shatter) to round out the burn suite/empty slots, and see how those games go.  If I can pull 50+% with that configuration, it can only get better bringing in 4x pyroclasm.

Edit:
Arc Trail is pretty good.  However, the thing I have a problem with with it is that it is a sorcery.  Sorceries are really slow.  Sorceries don't kill in response to equip, or kill haste creatures, or kill flashed in 4 toughness creatures (in response to enchant even)

Burst Lightning combines with literally any other spell to kill an Exarch.  Burst lightning is very easy to cast, and acts like Lightning bolt, in that it gives you credible threats on 2, 3, 4 mana to kill Exarches, exponentially more than the omni-3-drop + sorcery arc trail.  Since the only answer this deck really has to Exarch is to kill it in response to equip, doing that as many ways as possible is quite important.