Vampires testing 6/4

So, in my last post I talked about how it might be a good idea to take out Arc Trail (a sorcery, 4x) for Burst Lightning (an instant, 4x), because it would help out the Exarch-Twin matchup.  More ways to do 4 damage at instant speed = good.
Well, the matchup this would impact the most would be one where the creatures have one toughness.  The most popular version of this at this time seems to be vampires.  So I played some BR Vamps vs Pyro Ascension tonight.

Now, the vampires deck has some pretty terrible cards (4x Go for the Throat, 4x Lightning Bolt, 4x Arc Trail) against Ascension, though the burn can't be prevented, so it can sometimes finish off, or threaten to finish off, if I get too low.  The Ascension deck has 2x Shatter, which are as dead as the GFTTs the vampires deck is packing.

So, in the first set of 8 games, with with Burst Lightnings, the Vampire deck took 7 of the 8 games.

What the heck happened you say?

Viscera Seer was a beating against my "2:1" removal of Staggershock. 

Not only does it "counter" the rebound, it prevents the rebound from charging Ascension.  It forces me to spend removal on it, when many other 2-power guys are killing me.


Bloodghast was it's typical beating, and Kalestria Highborne did a good chunk of damage.
I played 8 more games, with the Arc Trail configuration, and the Ascension deck won 7 of the 8.

In contrast to Staggershock being terrible against Viscera Seer, Arc Trail is amazing against Viscera Seer.  VS is a 1 toughness guy to get worked over, and Arc Trail shuts down the aggressive 1-drop draws from the Vampire deck like nobody's business.  It's easy to cast off a turn 1 Halimar Depths or Preordain, so that's a nice bonus.

There was only one game where Arc Trail was not effectively a Pyroclasm, and there was more than one game where it mattered that it did damage to his head.

Searing Blaze did some big chunks when ascended, for low mana, but I think Red Sun's Zenith could have been an awesome 2-of, to go with 2x Shatter.  (Works wonderfully against Highborne, Bloodghast, as long as Viscera Seer is in the graveyard rather than in play)

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Now, of course, I think these ratios would "even out" with more games played.  I don't think that it is really 12% win with Burst Lightning and 88% win with Arc Trail.  But really, the difference between paying one mana to basically kill a Viscera Seer, or paying one more mana to kill the same Viscera Seer, and a whole nother threat, is quite huge.  Staggershock is good, but it can't measure up in the Vampires matchup because of Viscera Seer.  Staggershock as a three-mana kill-one-Viscera-Seer is pretty anti-climactic.

Against even more aggressive decks, like Kuldotha Red (if that's still alive in a land of Batterskulls), being able to kill a Pest + Guide, or just two Goblin Tokens is worth the one extra turn it takes to cast it.