Mode 1: Sylvan Might
Save my guy from damage based removal:
To figure out whether this is good or not, we need to line up our guys, against whatever toughness-based removal there is.
1) Pillar of Flame - Our guys are already immune.
1a) Double Pillar of Flame - This saves every guy we have from this.
2) Searing Spear - Kills a few of our guys (Thragtusk, Beast Token, Centaur Healer) - Saves all of these guys from this.
2a) Pillar + Spear - Saves 4 or higher toughness (Angel, Smiter). Does not save 3-toughness, but against three-toughness, they're likely spearing in combat, where this is a blowout.
2b) Double Spear - Saves... Sigarda! =P
3) Mizzum Mortars - Kills pretty much everything (but Sigarda). With Charm, it kills none of our guys.
3a) Mizzium + something - Yeah right.
4) Tragic Slip - Kills none of our guys without morbid, kills all of our guys with morbid.
5) Bonfire of the Damned: X spells are hard to figure out. It is very likely that we can beat this hard-cast at any point with Charm. We can also beat this late game miracled if they want to do something else, or mid-game miracled even if they don't.
So, we are either looking okay against these (don't need to use it, give opponent dead cards) or Charm works marvelously.
Save my guy from combat damage:
To figure out how good this is, we need to consider what kind of blockers opponents will have, and whether charm saves our guys from those.
1) Thragtusk - Thragtusk blocks Smiter, Thragtusk, and Beast Token. It doesn't block our fliers.
--Charm saves Smiter from Thragtusk (and gets in 3 damage), and Smiter is naturally immune to beast token.
--Charm does nothing for Tusk v. Tusk. It saves Tusk v. the beast token.
--Charm does nothing for Beast token v. Tusk, but does save our beast token.
2) Centaur Healer, Beast token: Trades with 'Tusk or beast token.
--Charm works in both of these situations as effectively casting another Thragtusk or Beast Token (one of the modes of charm already, so this is like giving the token haste + making it a 3/3)
3) Loxodon Smiter - Trades with Tusk, Smiter, eats Beast token
--Charm turns all of these from a trade (or a chump-attack) into a removal spell + damage.
4) Restoration Angel - Trades with Tusk, eats beast token, bounces Restoration Angel.
--Charm turns these from a trade into a removal spell + damage.
5) Rakdos Keyrune - Eats Tusk, Healer, Beast token.
--Charm turns all of these from a chump-attack, into a removal spell + 4 damage.
--Rakdos Keyrune is one of the spells the format is leaning on to contain 'Tusk...
6) Angel of Serenity - Eats everything. Bounces our angels.
--Charm lets Smiter eat Angel
--Charm lets Thrag trade with Angel
--Charm lets Restoration Angel bounce.
--Charm lets our Serenity eat theirs.
6) Auger of Bolas, Snapcaster Mage - Anything that costs less than three - Can't block our guys anyway.
Double blocks:
Having even a potential combat trick, with two viable combat-math-messing-up modes makes double blocking problematic. As far as some actual likely double blocks, Charm isn't amazing in the pump mode. Smiter vs Thrag + 3/3, or 2x 3/3's is just a 2-for-2. Angel of Serenity vs double Restoration Angel is just a removal spell (though you keep your Angel). Thragtusk vs double-Angel is not even good for Charm.
Get through some damage:
We can bring some damage, between Smiter, Healer, Thragtusk, Angel, and Angel 2.0. Chump blockers in the form of spirit tokens, or a race situation (as foolhardy as that might be against the Tusk/Healer combo) can be dramatically changed by some +2 power and/or Trample damage.
Moorland Haunt and/or Lingering Souls should not be saving our UW opponent at low life. We just have to watch out for cards like Azorius Charm or Unsummon, so only use this if it is a last resort, or they are threatening a kill in another way. Or, just always target a high-value ETB card, like Thrag or Angel, rather than a card like Beast Token.
Mode 2: Reprisal
The actual effect on the Charm is power 5 or greater, and it Exiles. The power difference between 4 and 5 (Smiter, Unpaired Silverheart?) isn't that relevant, but the exile instead of destroy-no-regen is quite relevant. People are playing Unburial Rites and Angel of Serenity, ignoring the corner cases of Rancor-On-Some-Zombie-that-comes-back (which handily, tends to bring them to 5 or more power).
So lets look at what we get to exile with this...
1) Thragtusk.
Thrag is not amazing to exile, but it's better to exile the beast, than kill it, in this environment. It is commonly played, so we won't lack targets in any green matchup.
2) Wolfyr Silverheart.
Exiling this guy, or who he's paired to, is going to be quite good for us. It allows "trading" the Silverheart for a 3/3 (on a double block), a Smiter, a Thragtusk, or it enables eating whatever the Silverheart was paired with.
For Silverheart especially, being an instant is quite important, since it gives the creature it's paired with a kind of hasty power.
3) Angel of Serenity.
This is pure blowout. If they target their own guys (Thragtusks), you respond to the trigger by exiling the Angel (which is super-relevant), so their targets are perminantly exiled, even if they try to respond to the charm.
If they target our guys, we wait for the trigger to resolve, then exile their stabilization play. Our guys tend to give value on the way in, so we can't get too blown out by having to recast our Thragtusk or Restoration Angel.
4) Olivia Voldaren.
Our guys have >2 power, so if Olivia wants to kill one of them, she'll have to move into Exile-range (which gets us any stolen creatures back). If Olivia pings + steals, and pings anything else to try to steal that, she is in exile range.
Olivia isn't ultra-vulnerable to Charm, because she can steal with just one ping, but no one actually does that.
5) Craterhoof + really small guys.
Exile the 'Hoof in response to the trigger, your 5 elves get +1/+1.
6) Other: Gatherer search for >4 Power:
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Search/Default.aspx?action=advanced&format=|[%22Standard%22]&power=+%3E[4]
Armada Wurm, Bloodgift Demon, Deadbridge Golliath, Griselbrand, Deadeye Navigator, Desecration Demon, Gizela, Isperia, Lord of Lineage, Niv Mizzet, Rakdos, Thundermaw Hellkite, Predator Ooze (eventually)
These are all some very big threats, which Charm handles in pretty much the best possible way. At instant speed, and forever, for two mana.
Mode 3: Ashcoat Bear
This card has several modes to it as well:
Mode 1: Flash blocker
This is our main sub-mode against aggressive decks. They attack with a 2-toughness creature, we flash in a blocker, their pressure is alleviated. The only targets this doesn't really work that well against that cost less than three are:
--Stromkirk Noble (it's a human token)
--Call the Conclave (3/3)
--Ash Zealot (First Strike)
--Frostburn Wierd (1/4) (limited all-star)
--Mogg Flunkies (take out their buddie instead)
--Elite Inquisitor (zombies on the decline, and we have no targets in our deck)
--Thalia (on multiple levels)
--Precinct Captain
All of these targets die or are otherwise neutralized by anything costing more than 2 (Centaur Healer, Beast Token, Restoration Angel, Thragtusk)
Mode 2: Shock to the face
Against an opponent at 2 life, there is not much better of a spell.
Mode 3: Shock to (a planeswalker's) face.
Kills a Jace into -2 from an empty board.
Pressures Tamiyo, and/or kills it depending on what is happening.
Kills/pressures a Liliana
Kills/Pressures a Sorin
A lot of the removal out of these planeswalker decks is sorcery speed, so on an empty board, having some EOYT interaction that can poke a planeswalker can make cards like Jace 4.0 look pretty terrible.
Conclusion:
So, we have our first mode, that is great in any sort of mirror, or midrange creature matchup, and can finish opponents who are at low life (aka are not playing green) and trying to chump block/race us, and can save our blockers from our opponents removal.We have our second mode, which can perminantly deal with the most problematic creatures in the format out of the control or midrange decks, or save us from an aggro deck's "finisher". Against pretty much every deck, it saves us from whatever they are planning to kill us with once the board stalls out.
And then we have a third mode, which also has applications against aggro, and control. It helps us get to the mid game against aggro, and it helps us from getting overwhelmed by planeswalkers against control, or just kill a control opponent post-wrath. (Thragtusk tokens, 2/2 knights, it all adds up)
I really have a hard time not maxing out on this card, as my compliment to Farseek in the two-slot. It really is a super-versitile card, that you just keep finding more uses for as you think about it.
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