Friday, December 17, 2010

Aggro Matchups, as of 12-16-2010

 We'll break this down by broad categories, and see if there are any subsets where I'm doing horribly, as well as give some general thoughts about the match-up, problem cards, etc.

Vampires
Mono Black:
8-8 (50%) in games
4-4 (50%) in matches
RB:
3-8 (27%) in games
3-3 (50%) in matches

This transition from B to RB has been one of time as well.  I had some bad draws, and bad decisions in some of these games, but clearly, Viscera Seer, and Bloodghast are the problem creatures here.  Bloodghast is just hard to deal with generally.  Viscera Seer forces you to bolt it first, or the deck gets out of control.

Possible answers to Bloodghast to improve this matchup are Calcite Snappers, Mindbreak Trap, and the black Spellbomb.  All of these are pretty dubious answers.  (Calcite gets Gatekeepered, Mindbreak is a 4 mana exile counter to a 2 mana spell, and the black spellbomb is a one-time answer, to one card.)

Elves:
9-8 (53%) in games
4-3 (57%) in matches

Problem cards are planeswalkers, Nissa's Chosen, Leatherback Baloth, and Vengevine.
These creatures or PW have high toughness, relative immunity to pyroclasm, or return once spells are cast.  Into the Roil are some of the best answers to this, or two cards combined.
Volition Reigns would be a pretty good card to deal with some of these.  Arc Trail would do a better job of dealing with planeswalkers than Pyroclasm does.

Green-based Infect.
4-4 (50%) in games.
2-2 (50%) in matches.

This deck is very bursty, and probably just needs tight play to defeat.  My first two encounters were losses, the last two are wins, so I may have a better idea of what to do now.

Goblins:
13-5 (72%) in games
7-1 (88%) in matches

Early, many 2:1s were had with Spell Pierce countering Kuldotha Rebirth, or Mana Leak vs Devistating Summons, or Pyroclasm, etc, etc.   Kuldotha Rebirth, or multiple Goblin Guides are the biggest threats, but often the PA deck stabilizes at 6 or so, and that's game.

GW Tokens
3-2 (60%) in games
2-1 (67%) in matches.

Both losses were in the same match, to planeswalkers + Monument + Naturalize.  Bounce is not amazing vs these planeswalkers, and they have a fair amount of mana from Eldrazi spawn, to pay for Mana Leak.  Negate may be the counter card of note here, since it counters everything they might do that is threatening.  Arc Trail is inferior to Pyroclasm in this matchup, because they have a true swarm of guys.  (Though, Arc Trail kills their planeswalker...).  The last win was with the most recent deck, with no Pyroclasms main.

R Artifacts:
3-3 (50%) in games.
1-1 (50%) in matches

Kuldotha Phoenix is the problem card here, along with Koth.  They come out hard and fast, and the Phoenix recurses.  This should probably be 4-2, 2-0 if I had played better in G2-3 of the second match.

R Kiln Fiend:
9-3 (75%) in games
5-6 (83%) in matches

All in creature deck, meet 8 1cc removal spells, 8 2cc counter/bounce spells, 4 3cc removal spells, all instant speed.  The loss involved 15-20 points of burn to the face.

RW (Boros landfall)
13-6 (68%) in games.
7-3 (70%) in matches.

Two matches were lost to KFW + other threats.  One was lost to being stupid (and probably See Beyond), and Koth is good.  Koth, or early lack of removal + several threats + Fetches + Sword of Body and Mind for them.  (And KFW probably).  Arc Trail is probably better than Pyroclasm in this match.  (Since their guys have 1 toughness by in large)

White Weenie
Overall:
11-20 (35%) in games
4-9 (31%) in matches

White allies: 1-2g, 0-1m (Umbra, Luminarch, Leyline, KFW, Purge, Brave the Elements)
W aggro 1-2g, 0-1m (emeria, sun titan, KFW maindeck)
WW Quest: 7-8g, 3-3m 
WW Non-Quest: 2-8g, 1-4m

I made some mistakes here, and did some things badly, but this is clearly my worst matchup, thanks largely to Kor Firewalker, in an aggro deck.  KFW in an control deck is rarely a problem, because it is a 10 turn clock, rather than the 5 or so turn clock it represents in a deck that actually attacks you with things.

There aren't many things that would deal with Kor Firewalker in a more perminant way.  Ratchet Bomb, Necropede, Calcite Snapper blocks it, Perilous Myr, or something terrible like Brittle Effigy or Volition Reigns.  One of the bad parts about KFW in aggro matchups is that I often side out Mana Leak in order to bring in Pyroclasm, which means that I can never get rid of KFW for good.

On the bright side, decklist 1+2 (the two most recent) are 6-6g, 3-2m against this archtype.

The rest:
More random stuff here.  Overall:
17-9 (65%) in games
9-4 (69%) in matches

Losses:
RB aggro Goblin Guide, Dark Tutelage, Bloodghast, Hexmage
WB Allies: Dark Tutelage, Memorice, Revoke Existance.  Spell Pierces countered nothing G3.
UW: Grand Architect, Jace, Masticore, Steel Overseer.
4C Tokens:  Grave Titan, Cultivate, Sylvan Ranger, Inferno Titan, Elspeth, Walls, Cunning Sparkmage

Only one of these losses in the two most recent decks.

Conclusions:
The worst match-ups are WW (all but quest), and Vampires.

There's no real card that answers both matchups.  I suppose Volition Reigns answers both...  Kor Firewalker gaining you life is pretty non-terrible, against whatever else they have that gets through.  Taking Bloodghast and them killing it is probably terrible, so it's not a real solution there.  Arc Trail may improve the matchups by getting some damage into the face, but either way KFW and Bloodghast are pretty rough.

There are a ton of good match-ups here.  If I was playing Pyroclasm main-deck, I'd be tempted to take it out due to these results.  I could consider cutting Burst Lightning for draw or counter, but the card is really not dead in other matchups.

Overall, this seems like very good news for the aggro matchup.

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