Approach:
+4 Flashfreeze
+3 Mindbreak Trap
-4 Burst Lightning
-3 Into the Roil
Same presumptions about the Valakut deck. (-3 Pyroclasm, +3 Acidic Slime) I'd actually prefer with this deck that they take out the Harrows for anything, because they were creating some havok. Passing the turn with 4 mana open might look like it's a safe time to tap out for a Foresee or card draw, but it's very easy for a Harrow and a land in hand to turn that 4 into 6 and a titan on their next turn.
Participants:
Just me solo this time. I definately want some practice time against this deck when I can't see their hand (either way, to be honest)
I played the Valakut deck to play around Mana Leak, unless they had either multiple Titans, or Summoning Trap backup, or Acidic Slime on the bluff-Summoning Trap. Playing the Valakut deck more aggressively would probably have won them one more game, and lost them three more games. They mostly blanked Mana Leak through this line of play (which was very sad for the Ascension deck), but did miss a few holes where they might have landed a threat to win fast.
Reasoning:
The idea here is that the Valakut deck doesn't really have that many threats that are truly game-winning. Those threats are really dangerous, but if they are neutralized via strong countermagic, it will buy a ton of time for board development, Ascending, and burning out the Valakut deck.
This also means you can do normally scary things like T3 Halimar into Treasure Hunt on the play, or laying out a PA turn 2, just to free up mana for double-counter, or Mindbreak Trap turn 4. You just keep drawing land, and keeping up MBT or double-counter, and eventually you get a charged up ascension, or whatnot.
In past games, I've tried to attack their ramp, which typically ends with them casting a Primeval Titan and killing me either that turn or the next. This plan holds removal for the true threats, and deals with those as well as possible.
Results:
5 wins, 5 losses.
All the games were much closer than before. Some felt like I had them completely under control, some were ragged races against double or triple drawn and played Valakuts. None felt like they were completely out of reach. Some got into a stalled state around turn 10 or so, where we were both in topdeck mode, but I won some of those, and lost some. Perhaps two of the losses could have been wins had I drawn slightly better, and perhaps one of the wins could have been a loss if the Valakut player had drawn better.
Problems:
Most losses in this set were due to the Valakut player laying 1-3 Valakuts, and killing me with those, either with Harrow, or KHE powered by "Fetches". The Valakut player kept one hand with 3 Valakuts, two fetches, and two KHE. I had to MBT the second KHE, or I was dead on board.
The Valakut player only landed 3-5 real Threats over all 10 games, and the PA deck won 1-2 of those matches, though they were very close. Inferno Titan got through a few times, and was double-bolted. Avenger landed twice, and won one game. (Double bolt in response to cracking expedition) PT landed once, and may have led to a win.
I didn't miss the ITR's, they were definately fine to take out. The only real use for them would be to bounce my own Ascension in response to targetting by Acidic Slime, and half the time the Valakut player played a slime, I didn't have an Ascension out.
Mana Leaks didn't feel great with this strategy by the Valakut player, but if they had been more aggressive, they would have done quite well. Often times, I'd have a uncharged PA down, with a Mana Leak and some other card I didn't have any graveyard copies of in my hand, and they'd cast a PT with 3 mana up (and a ST in hand). The Mana Leak can't counter either spell effectively here, and the game will be over soon after. Envision a turn where they cast a PT on 9 mana with ST backup, and you have Mana Leak + Mana Leak, or Mana Leak + Flashfreeze, and you'll see why this strategy blanks Mana Leak pretty well.
Mindbreak Trap was awesome. I could cast it reliably, targetting relevant things, and it short-circuited the Summoning Trap plan. I imagine it will also be quite good against MGE's various green threats. (backed by 4 STs)
I'm not sure how to deal with the Valakut-me-to-death aspect of the Valakut deck, when they are drawn naturally. If I had infinite sideboard space, I'd have 1-3 demolishes, replacing 1 ITR and 0-2 Mana Leaks.
4 Flashfreeze basically just for these ramp matchups is probably as many SB slots as I can manage though.
4 Pyroclasm or Arc Trail for aggro. (-4 Leak)
3 MBT + 1 Sphinx for Control (-4 Burst)
That leaves 3 slots, which could be Negate for control, Demolish for Ramp, or some other crazy card for some of the bad matchups. (WW, Vamps)
I am embarrassed to say that the Valakut deck did beat me on a mull to 5 on the play. (3x Titan, 1x Trap on Turn 5, 6, 7, all countered, Valakuted to death)
Conclusion:
So, results here are at least average, and worthy of further investigation.
I need to log some time against a player where "I" can't see "their" hand, and "they" can't see "mine".
If these initial results hold up, I may have a solution to a very troublesome matchup.
PS:
Volition Reigns may be worth considering. I can let Primeval Titan, Avenger (on 7 mana), Inferno Titan, Wurmcoil Engine, or some planeswalker resolve, and just steal it, which is probably better than countering it. 1x Demolish, 1xChandra or something could be a good round-out.
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