2 Call To Mind + 2 Foresee vs. 4 Call To Mind.
Argument for Foresee:
=Foresee is my best topdeck late game. It lets me look at 6 cards this turn in a mad hunt for a particular card (often PA), which is probably 15% of my deck at that time.=If you don't have a PA, this hopefully finds one for you, and then you cast it + do things next turn.
=Foresee is basically a doubled Preordain. One card, for 4x the mana, and 2x the effect, a pretty awesome deal. It would be like paying 4 mana for 6 damage, a spell that doesn't exist. Lava Axe is 5 mana for 5 player-only damage, and there isn't a spell that does more than 4 general damage, that does more damage than it's mana cost (outside aoe).
=Foresee is always straight-up card advantage. It costs one card, and draws you two.
=Foresee is often much much more than straight-up card advantage. In the long run, it is similar to drawing about 4 cards in a conventional manner. When you consider that lands are often 100% dead when you cast Foresee (your most expensive spell), any land you don't draw is effectively a card you didn't have to draw for 0 upside. The average Foresee of bottom two lands, draw two cards, is a draw 4. The "good" Foresee of bottoming 3-4 land, or bad spells, is a draw 5-6. The "bad" Foresee of putting one land on the bottom and drawing two business cards, with another business card on top, is a draw 3, and that is about as bad as Foresee gets.
Argument against Foresee
=4 mana is alot to pay, and it tends to tap you out, so you are hoping to do things next turn.
This is alot less actually relevant if I have 0 counterspells in my deck, but it still maintains the percieved relevance to the opponent, and lack of bluff-ability.
=Casting a Call to Mind for a Preordain, and then NOT casting the Preordain with 2 mana up is a extremely strong counter-bluff. Casting a Foresee with 6 mana up is as good a counter bluff as Foresee can do.
=If you do have a PA, Foresee likely doesn't put any counters on it, but may set you up for putting counters on it next turn.
=4x Call to Mind makes charging PA off CTM fairly trivial. CTM for CTM, CTM for anything, PA charged - for only a cost of 6 mana (or 2x 3 mana), and no card disadvantage.
=2x CTM means you have to be very careful using your CTM mid-late-game. Your second CTM MUST target your first CTM, or you will never get any more. (which may be good enough for a kill-play, but probably not for common usage)
=CTM for a Preordain is a mini-Foresee. (with a similar casting cost). You can turn a CTM into a mini-foresee, you can't turn a Foresee into a mini-CTM. I'd almost certainly rather HD + CTM + TH, than Foresee, despite the Foresee probably drawing me one more card, and being easier to set up.
=CTM likely just straight up gets you what you want (as long as it is not a PA), for one mana less.
=Having 4x one-spell is better for charging PA than having 2x 2 different spells. (more redundancy), and CTM is a card like Staggershock which can be a one-card full-charge of a new PA.
What does "the community" think?
The community is probably using 4x Foresee, and 2-3x Call to Mind, and losing to aggro (or using SB slots for Pyroclasm, and still losing to aggro). It takes away from the Staggershock slot (which is great against all matchups, and for charging PA)
Bleh.
I can't imaging wanting to resolve more than two Foresees (or one doubled Foresee) ever in a game, so having 4 is just terrible. The second Foresee is pretty much always either overkill, a (double)mulligan, non-castable, or too slow to actually cast. (One might argue that the first Foresee is also too slow)
The first Foresee is pretty good, so I can see going to 3, but 4 is just way too much. (Especially with the 23 land the community plays)
Super-late game, any draw spell is great, with Foresee being the best, and Treasure Hunt probably being the worst (since it can draw you 1x counterspell/ITR/burn spell, and that's it). Call to Mind gets you your second best one back, or can do things like charge up a PA or just kill the opponent. Doubled Foresee is near-guaranteed kill with a active PA, double CTM is also near-guaranteed.
I'm not sure where to go with this. It's pretty close, and there are definate advantages of 4x CTM. I guess I'll just think about what the game state would be if I had a CTM instead whenever I draw a Foresee (and record it)
Counterspell(s) vs. Arc Trail
Whatever the winner of the below counterspell-off, it still might be better to just play Arc Trail main.
This is more about philosophy than capability, to some extent. They are two different outlooks on how the deck should win.
Counterspells try to slow things down a bit, draw the game out, and eventually cause a win via doubled spells.
Arc Trail functions as main-deckable Pyroclasms, which are incredible against some decks, while still getting damage in to the opponent's head or planeswalkers.
I have never seen a blue player +2 their little jace, so Arc Trail is just as good as Burst Lightning, Lightning Bolt, or Staggershock at killing that cloaked fiend. Arc Trail kills off a ton of aggro starts.
1 Toughness guys:
Lotus Cobra
Birds of Paradise, Llanowar Elf, Sylvan Ranger, Arbor Elf
Unleveled Joraga Treespeaker
Pulse Tracker, Bloodghast, Viscera Seer (Can't sac to counter the spell), Vampire Hexmage
Steppe Lynx, Plated Geopede
Kor Duelist, Elite Vanguard
Squadron Hawk, MemniteBlight Mamba, Ichor Rats, Ichorclaw Myr, Necropede
Spikeshot Elder, Goblin Bushwhacker, Goblin Ruinblaster, Kuldotha Rebirth tokens
Herebaz Druid, some other terrible allies.
Liliana's Spectre, Nantuko Shade
Essense Warden, Lone Missionary
Perilous Myr
2 Toughness guys:
Every other creature in a R, W, or B aggro deck. About 50% of the rest of the playable Green creatures (Not Vengevine, Wolfbriar Elemental, Overgrown Battlement, Titans, etc)
Notably lacking:
It's pretty fair to say that neither Staggershock, nor Arc Trail help kill resolved Titans of any stripe. 4 damage is unlikely to happen in conjunction with these 2 damage bursts, to take these bigger creatures down.
If there aren't any creatures in play, I can always 1 myself, to 2 them, which is not amazing, but I imagine it will be a oft-used option.
Arc Trail is like Staggershock 5-8 in creature annihilation, and staggershock is pretty awesome for creature annihilation despite the downsides it has over arc trail of:
3cc
Takes a turn to kill the 2nd one.
If the first copy of SS is countered on resolution, by the creature already being dead, sacrificed or whatnot, the second copy will not happen.
Arc Trail is a Sorcery instead of an instant, but it may save around 6 life against aggro decks compared to staggershock. (Kill two creatures T2, which can't attack me on their turn, and one of which can't attack me the next turn). This is especially relevant on the draw.
A previously mono-colored aggro deck (Vampires) in a color which should have the "best" removal (black), is splashing red in order to cast Arc Trail, Lightning Bolt, and have a non-tribal manland in their otherwise ultra-tribal, mono-Black-no-colorless-casting-cost deck. This is a testament to the power of Arc Trail (and Lightning Bolt) as strong, cheap removal.
Llanowar Elf into Elvish Archdruid(or anything else in their deck)
Pulse Tracker (or Viscera Seer (or Vampire Lacerator likely)) into anything
Steppe Lynx (or Spikeshot Elder) into anything
Lotus Cobra into Oracle of Mul'daya (or little Jace -1, or Cobra #2)
Joraga Treespeaker into Growth Spasm
Goblin Guide into anything not Goblin Guide
All of these starts are the starts that threaten death, and soon. All of them are completely shut down by this 2 mana sorcery. The only starts where Pyroclasm is incredibly better are Rebirth into Bushwhaker from goblins, or 3x 1-drop from vampires. And Pyroclasm can't kill them, and can't kill Planeswalkers.
Anyway, Arc Trail seems like it's a good, pro-active spell, that shuts down aggro just as well as Mana Leak (because it does it after the fact, and handles 1 creature better, because of incidental damage to them), and is better than Pyroclasm against non-aggro.
I am leaning towards swapping this in for whatever counterspell main-deck. (along with a few mountains for a few islands) I could also do something like swap it in for Burst Lightning, if I wanted to add it, and keep the counterspells.
Going counterless puts alot of pressure on ITR as a semi-answer. For some problems, it's an acceptable temporary answer. For others, only an active PA with CTM will move it into more of a continual solution. (EoT Bounce whatever, my turn, they die is a common setup)
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Alternatively, we could find that Arc Trail is good, and still keep in (whatever) counterspell, and just replace Burst Lightning instead.
Burst often does 2 damage, but it has the advantage of doing it at instant speed, which matters for:
Joraga Treespeaker (ties up their turn 2) (And killing the T1 JT)
Cellestial Collonade (4 toughness, "immune" to sorcery)
Bloodghast (Killing in response to land play + haste on their turn)
Goblin Guide (Getting the attack-proc and still killing it) (And killing the T1 GG)
Goblin Bushwhacker (prevents 2 damage, which the Arc Trail will probably prevent more by killing another goblin)
Arc Trail does cost 1 more mana, so it is a bit harder to put together that finishing turn, combining (multiple) Call to Mind(s), and copied DD. Staggershock is an instant, so it isn't horrific to have to cast the Arc Trail on your own turn. It's definately better than main-decking Pyroclasm, because it is never dead.
Either one is sided out vs. non-aggro, so it makes some amount of sense to play the one that is better vs aggro, rather than the one that is better in general, and just not have the sideboard aggro slots.
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Alternatively alternatively, I recently read some oldschool PA articles, that said Burst Lightning was better than Lightning Bolt, because there were more 4 toughness targets, than three toughness targets. (aka all targets are 2 or 4).
It is true that there aren't a ton of 3 toughness targets, but there are some:
Steppe Lynx, Plated Geopede on their turn (even + Fetchland). Pretty much any scenario where you are going to target a PG or SL as a sorcery with BL, Arc Trail is better (and Arc Trail is just better in these scenarios anyway)
Elvish Archdruid + Leyline, which is huge for allowing your spells to not be dead.
Tempered Steel + Anything (not likely)
Vengevine (not awesome)
Bloodthrone Vampire + a creature (moving out of favor lately)
Big Jace + Brainstorm (happens all the time)
The big deal is when it comes down to later turns, and you are either trying to kill them, trying to double-bolt to kill a titan, or combo them out with Call to Mind (when you don't have a ton of mana). DoubledBolt-DoubledCTM-DoubledBolt is 12 damage, plus whatever else you CTM'ed, that can easily lethal someone out. Do the same thing with Burst Lightning, and it is 8 damage (or 8+4 = 12 if you have a turn to kill?)
I can't immediately dismiss this, but it doesn't seem like a awesome idea now.
Mana Leak vs. Deprive vs. Mindbreak Trap
All of these:
++Counter any type of spell
It is important/critical to be able to counter:
Creatures: Primeval Titan, Grave Titan, Frost Titan, Sun Titan, Acidic Slime, Kor Firewalker, War Priest of Thune, Stoneforge Mystic.
Non-Creatures: Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Koth, of the Hammer, Elspeth Tirel, Memoricide, Mind Sludge, Dark Tutelage, Ratchet Bomb, Leyline of Sanctity, Luminarch's Ascension, Sword of Body and Mind, Disenchant-type effects.
--Are pretty bad at charging PA.
--They can't be cast at will
--They don't draw cards, or kill your opponent.
--They don't deal with already-resolved cards (without an Into The Roil)
--Are bad against Ricochet Trap (even doubled)
Mana Leak:
++Cheapest - castable on turn 2
++Easiest to cast (Least U). Only have to leave 2 mana up (1U) so you can cast more sorceries. (Which tend to have U-costs)
++Can still be relevant with a active PA
++Some people don't play around it, especially doubled. (moreso in TPR?)
--Can become less relevant late-game.
--Easiest to play around
--Can be terribad in some matchups (control, ramp), due to ease of playing around, and slowness of the matchup in general (when PA is trying to play "control")
--Mana Leak "forces" you to counter some spells you might not, because them resolving makes Mana Leak irrelevant (2nd Overgrown Battlement, Harrow, KHE, Everflowing Chalice)
Deprive:++Cheap - 2cc.
++Hard counter, at every game stage.
++Best(?) late-game counter, because it lets you reuse Halimar Depths, hopefully combined with a Treasure Hunt, or uncracked/unplayed Scalding Tarn, which can easily set up your next turn.
++Acceptable in counter-wars.
They will often cast a important spell with 3 extra mana (to pay for your Mana Leak), while holding some counterspell, often Mana Leak. If they are casting a Jace, this puts them at 7-8 lands before they do anything. You only need to be at 5 untapped land to Deprive, and pay for their Mana Leak. This means you could have cast a preordain, or played a Halimar Depths, or maybe even cast a Treasure Hunt or PA that turn. Sometimes it is a Negate or Cancel they are holding instead of a Mana Leak, but no counter works there. (And Deprive leaves up land to cast another counter, and lets you reuse HD even if they re-counter.
++People often play around Mana Leak, which gives you more turns to draw your Deprive, especially in slow matchups.
++With an active PA, you get two hard-counters, while only having to pay the pick-up-land cost once.
++If you are playing counterspells vs. aggro, you are often in a topdeck situation, and Mana Leaks are terrible in this scenario. Deprives are perhaps the best counter in this scenario.
00There are some potential bluffing advantages for (having to) leave up UR (and not UU), and having them either cast a important, or non-important spell, and you "not having the leak". (while still holding a counter). They'll likely be convinced that you don't have Mana Leak (the only counter that a sane person would play), and get blown out with a counter on their truly important spell later. But that still means you couldn't counter their semi-important (or really important) spell with your UR.
00If you don't have another land anyway, Deprive lets you "use" your land drop, without giving away information about your non-land status to your opponent. (Making draw spells like TH and Preordain more likely to resolve)
--Color Cost - UU is not-great. Many of the sorceries are U-based, and trying to cast double-Deprive turn 4 is never going to happen.
--Untapped UU turn 2 is hard to pull off. It pushes your Halimar Depths to turn 1, which makes your Treasure Hunts worse. (You can't use any of that HD knowledge to cast TH, and also leave up Deprive, while the cards are still on top with a T1 HD)
--Tempo. Picking up a land T2-4 is almost never going to be good. If it's a HD, it MIGHT be neutral, but it will very rarely be a net + for you. It is also pretty hard for it to be very useful vs aggro early. You can always throw away a Mana Leak as a pseudo-burn spell T2 against an aggro deck, but you can't do that with a Deprive (as easily, or with as few consequences)
Mindbreak Trap:
++Counters non-"counter"able things, which are often disasterous to this deck when playing as control.
Bloodghast (Landfall - return to play from graveyard. Haste if you are <=10 life.)
Vengevine (Return to play on second creature CAST in a turn. Haste.)
Kuldotha Phoenix (Return to play on upkeep for (4) with metalcraft. Haste.)
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn (Uncounterable - you lose, take an extra turn (~Haste).)
Gaea's Revenge (Uncounterable. Haste (w/8 power, and non-targetability).)
++Can occasionally be paid for free, but almost never on your turn.
In counter wars, when they cast a spell, you counter, then they mana leak twice or something (Often requires you to have 2 counters anyway)
When they cast multiple creatures in the same turn (Vampires, WWQuest)
RUG: Preordain, Preordain/Explore -> some spell is not uncommon. Sometimes that spell is even a Titan!
UB/BUG: Preordain -> Discard (that may not hit MBT) -> Grave Titan/Jace will be held off by the 0cc.
++Occasionally counters more than one spell. PA Mirror
Long counter-war (Often requires multiple counters from you)
Overeager nuke-caster, or Trap-caster. (They can always let instants resolve before casting the next one)
++Not discardable by Inquisition of Kozilek. UB control often tries to strip your hand of permission with discard, before they cast their game-winning threat (Grave Titan, Jace, Memoricide). They often play 4 Inquisition, and only 1 Duress (which still gets MBT). Being able to keep your permission through 80% of their discard is good, you just need to be able to cast the MBT once they go for their game-winning threat.
++I did sideboard in my MBTs vs Vampires (Bloodghast) and Fauna Shaman (Vengevine) over Mana Leak. Pyroclasm-like effects are okay, but not amazing against recursive threats.
00Requires a combination of ITR to deal with many of these cheaper spells, but then deals with them for good.00 Average late-game. Better than Mana Leak, worse than Deprive.
--Most expensive, by 2x.
Hard to leave up while casting other (draw) sorceries.
Need 7 mana to counter a spell, and pay for the mana leak backup. (unlikely) (see deprive ++ scenario)
Many of the threats described in the general section above are 4 or less casting cost, or accelerated out on turn 4, which makes trying to counter any of them with Mindbreak Trap awkward at best.
--Most color-intense (UU2 is no better than UU)
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Overall:
Mana Leak is best (very) early, and against impatient people. It is the best spell to REPRESENT having, because it causes your opponent to give you more turns. (A pseudo time walk, that you don't even have to cast?) Mana Leak benefits quick-game play. You can do stuff, and still slow people down, or represent slowing them down, and then they're dead before it matters that it isn't a hard counter.
Deprive is best in the mid-late game, where Mana Leak won't counter the spells, or the spells you want to counter are cheap. Reusing Halimar Depths when you don't need the extra mana (often) anyway can be pure upside. Deprive benefits patient long-game play.
Mindbreak Trap is (only) good late, and plugs a few holes the deck can have, against specific cards. (Most often when combined with ITR) Generally, the more controlling an outlook (and the later we expect the game to end) the more necessary having some number of MBTs is. Killing a ramp deck on turn 4 means you don't have to worry about their Gaea's Revenges. Killing a Vampires deck on turn 5 means you don't have to worry about Bloodghast recursion.It seems like it's probably best to main-deck Deprive, represent Mana Leak, and have MBT in the sideboard. (For the specific matches where it is good). Mana Leak vs. Deprive is tricksy business.
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Edit: I'm pretty sure I'm playing the Deprives main. Valakut plan is still sketchy. 4xDeprive/4xFlashfreeze/3xMindbreak Trap/2xDemolish is kinda over the top, taking out 4xArcTrail/BurstLightning, 4x bolt, 1x Call To Mind?
Man, that just seems terrible. Mycolith King Dome for a winning plan vs Valakut...Apparently editing this post totally broke the formatting of it. Awesome.
I've effectively reposted this, because an edit totally destroyed all formatting irreparably. I'll be deleting the other post. I am not happy at all that editing destroys formatting, since I really love my editing, but copy pasting the text and re-editing works. LAME.
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