To recap, the strategy was:
+4 Kiln Fiend
+4 Goblin Guide
-4 Pyromancer Ascension
-2 Foresee
-2 Mana Leak (Into the Roil, and Call To Mind, can remove walls, KHE (slow them down))
This was 100% goldfish, playing first every game. One can only assume that my Turn X kills would only be better on the draw, because I would have one more card to double-bolt my opponent with, and so on.
This plan would be in place for:
Valakut
Maybe MGE (They could take their mana dudes out, for threats?)
Non-White, Non-Red Control. (Kor Firewalker, Celestial Purge are TERRIBLE with Kiln Fiend. White could have Leyline/Ascension in theory, which KF is great against, but you can't count on that)
This is probably 33% of the metagame, so having 8 sideboard slots against these matchups is possible.
I took fairly detailed notes on this, so I have some good results to share.
Overall Results:
Turn 3 kills: 0 (GG -> KF -> Preordain + 2 1cc burn) I did put them to one once (GG -> KF -> 2xPreordain + Bolt), which could be a kill if they have a pay-fetchland.
Turn 4 kills: 14
Turn 5 kills: 10
Turn 6 kills: 4
Turn 7+ kills: 2
Turn 4 kill analysis:
Ending life totals for the opponent were:
0 |||||
-1|
-2 ||
-3
-4 ||
-5
-6
-7 |
-8
-9
-10 |||
Of the "close" wins (-3 or worse):
KF only: ||||
2*GG ||
GG+KF ||
In these scenarios, they probably can't have a 0/4 wall, but can have any low-toughness blocker. (because I can staggershock it, instead of them)
Of the blowouts: (-4 or better)
KF only: || (Both of the -4's)
GG + KF ||||
In these scenarios, they can block a KF once, or a GG twice, etc.
In the Turn 4 kills, I mulliganed:
0 times: 10
1 time: 3
2 times: 1
T4 kill conclusions:
Having the Kiln Fiend is pretty important. Double Goblin Guide only accounted for 2 of these 14 wins in this category. If the GG's had been Arc Trails(A multi-function spell that I may end up maining), at least 4 of the GG+KF draws would have still been wins, and 1-2 more would have put the opponent on 1 life. Obviously, the double GG wins would not have been wins as double arc trail hands.
I mulliganed at least once in 14 of the hands, so a mulligan has a 4/14 (28.5%) chance of being a turn 4 kill.
Of course, this also means that I didn't mulligan 16 times, and only won 10 of those on turn 4.
In some of these(typically the -10s), I did have ITR or Mana Leak "backup" for the win. I only counted ITR for pumping KF if I could bounce my own Goblin Guide and replay it. (for a net swing for 6 that turn, ug?) I never counted Mana Leak as a spell I could cast.
Turn 5 kill analysis:
Ending life totals for the opponent were:
0
-1 |
-2 |
-3 |
-4 ||
-5
-6 |
-7 ||
-8
-9 |
-10 |
"Close" games (-3 or worse)
2*GG |
1*GG |
KF + mull to 4 + no land|
Blowouts (-4 or better)
2*KF ||
GG+KF ||
2*GG ||
KF |
In the turn 5 kills I mulliganed:
0 times:|||||
1 time:|||
2 times:|
3 times: |
Double KF draws tended to push out to 5 turns (with a blowout) because not enough instants and sorceries were drawn.
Single KF draws that didn't kill in 4 turns had similar problems. Sometimes you draw alot of ITR or Staggershock (which, while good, does not put people away like 2-3x 1cc burn + draw)
Alot of these games involved preordaining past 3cc spells, or 2cc no-impact blue spells., or drawing more land than was optimal. Kicked ITR on turn 4 for a land (as the only instant in my hand) was often the best I could do.
4 of these t5 wins had the opponent at 3 or less life at the end of turn 4. Only two had the opponent at 10 or more life at the end of turn 4. (those being 15-25 point double-KF swings)
Many of the double GG draws were single GG draws, that hit a second GG off a turn 2 preordain.
All of the hybrid GG games would have been equal wins with Arc Trail over Goblin Guide. The pure GG wins were often 7 card hands, that would have to mulligan with something like Arc Trail, Staggershock*2, Preordain, Mountain, Island, Bolt. (I kept most hands with playable GG turn 1, and these tended to be turn 5 or so kills.
Turn 6+ Kill Analysis.
My second game I mulled to 5, with 3 islands, a staggershock, and a KF. Probably should have mulliganed that away. Of course, I drew 2 more KF's, and no mountains. My "opponent" was at 5 life on turn 7.
My 11th game, I mulliganed to 4, with Staggershock, Island, Treasuire Hunt, and Preordain, which drew into a turn 6 kill.
My 12th game, I mulliganed to 3, and never cast anything over 6 turns.
My 18th game, I started with KF/GG/Mountain/Preordain*2, Into the Roil*2 (perhaps a mulligan in retrospect?). Dropped the GG turn one, KF landed turn 4, kill turn 6.
My 22nd game, I mulliganed to 2 mountains, scalding tarn, kiln fiend, preordain, and treasure hunt, which should be a good hand. I drew only land (and ITR/Mana leak pushed down with preordain probably), so the kill escaped me until turn 6. (1 life on turn 5). Normally this hand would be an easy turn 4 or 5 kill.
My 25th game, I mulled to 5, with Island, Halimar Dephts, Scalding Tarn, Kiln Fiend, Into the roil, which is about as good as you can get on 5 cards. I drew only land, to push the kill out to turn 6 (3 life on turn 5)
Mulligans were 2, 3, 3, 0, 1, 2 at this level, which is still pretty impressive, since only twice did i go past turn 6.
Still, this is 6 total fail hands, out of 30 games (20%), which is more than I'd like. The 5 turn wins might not be real wins, because turn 5 may be after Primeval Titan comes down on their turn 4.
========================
Goblin Guide Openers:
For hands that had a castable T1 Goblin Guide:
T4 kill (With KF) |||||
T5 kill (with another GG drawn t3) ||
T4 kill with double GG, multiple burn ||
T5 kill with KF + GG drawn t5 |
T6 kill with KF played t4 (1 land opener) |
T5 kill starting with 2*GG |
T5 kill, Mountain, Halimar Dephts, KF |
4 of the 5 initial T4 kills would be the same kill with Arc Trail. It's hard to say how many of the others would also be T4-6 kills, since I was always pushing Mana Leak, or ITR to the bottom, and those are likely to be Arc Trail slots if I didn't have GG.
Many of these hands would be mulligans without GG, but that's not necessarily a loss. Most of my mulligans were T5 wins anyway.
So, GG definately did something, I just don't know how awesome it was in general. Probably have to run more testing with Arc Trail, to get an accurate mulligan/scry representation.
Opening hands/Mulligans:
I have records of all the hands I kept, or mulliganed, in shorthand form. I'll put these in later, but it is 2am, and I am very tired. I did mulligan very aggressively, and did not keep most any hand that required drawing a specific color of mana to do something.
I had a fair amount of no-land hands. I also had a fair amount of mono-blue-lands hands. If we made this swap "for real", adding 1-3 Mountains for Islands would be a good call.
It is very possible that there are some hidden trends of what hands win and lose by T4, 5, 6, so looking at that should be useful.
Overall conclusions:
Goblin Guide may not add alot of percentage points to this matchup, over the anti-aggro Arc Trail (a main-deckable Pyroclasm (like Staggershock), that could replace Mana Leak in the stock list)
I would have to mulligan quite a bit more to guarantee a Kiln Fiend if no GG was present, but AT goes quite well with KF, unlike GG. (GG goes better with itself) Arc Trail isn't exactly amazing vs Primeval Titan. (But could lead to a burn-out with KF + ITR)
I definately wasn't missing the PA with this post-board plan. I never played more than 6 or so spells, so the odds of even charging the PA with that are pretty low, especially since I'd have to take out some charging spell to put in the non-synergistic (with KF) PA.
~45% Turn 4 win is probably worth investigating further. Another 33% on turn 5 might be fast enough, especially if they keep a hand that is good vs my game one deck. (Acidic Slime is super-irrelevant G2, as is Nature's Claim, Gaea's Revenge, etc)
I'd rather not devote 4 (more) sideboard slots to this matchup if I can double-purpose those against some other matchup as well. 4 arc trail (for 4 mana leak) main would do some interesting things to my matchups, but it's hard to say whether it's good or bad without testing. I've been thinking about some other changes, but that's another post.
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